20 Twin Tip Ter #7 · Lincoln, NH 03251

$595,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Condo · 111 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $403/sqft · 10% above area Est $539k · 10% over $460/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new construction condo at Forest Ridge at Loon Mountain! This garden-style unit offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 1,475 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Beautiful mountain views from nearly every room. Open-concept floor plan with recessed lighting, electric fireplace, and modern finishes throughout. Forest Ridge owners enjoy access to resort-style amenities including an indoor pool, hot tub, fitness center, and steam rooms, plus a seasonal shuttle to Loon Mountain. Conveniently located near skiing, hiking, recreation, restaurants, and shopping. Ideal as a primary residence, second home, or investment property.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Steam rooms
• Indoor pool

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• INDOOR POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• STEAM ROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $595k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($101k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $595k).
• Recommended offer: $541k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 4.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $167k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($541k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $541,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.47%
• DSCR: 3.69
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $539,018
• List price: $595,000
• Delta: 10.39%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $581,990
• Equity at exit: $241,001

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.14×
• Total profit: $1,355,327
• Equity at exit: $351,965

Cash invested: $166,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03251

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,415 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,120
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$744 /mo · $8,925/yr
• Insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$460
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,447
• Net cashflow: $8,396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,787

Max offer price $595,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,750
• Closing costs: $17,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
249 Pollard Rd Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,000	$1.21	44d	1	0.46mi
51 Pollard Rd Unit 4 Lincoln, NH	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,250	$2.25	44d	1	0.56mi
51 Pollard Rd Lincoln, NH	2.0	2.0	1000	$15,000	$15.00	44d	1	0.56mi
15 Winter Way #4 Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.5	1443	$18,000	$12.47	44d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $460 · $5,520/yr
• Likely covers: electricpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $595,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $595,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $595,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $595,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $595,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $595,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $595,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $595,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $595,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $595,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $595,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-02-23
    listed $595,000 Active 639-char remark

    Show marketing remark (639 chars)

    Brand new construction condo at Forest Ridge at Loon Mountain! This garden-style unit offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 1,475 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Beautiful mountain views from nearly every room. Open-concept floor plan with recessed lighting, electric fireplace, and modern finishes throughout. Forest Ridge owners enjoy access to resort-style amenities including an indoor pool, hot tub, fitness center, and steam rooms, plus a seasonal shuttle to Loon Mountain. Conveniently located near skiing, hiking, recreation, restaurants, and shopping. Ideal as a primary residence, second home, or investment property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $196,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,329
• − Property taxes: −$8,925
• − Insurance: −$2,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,758
• − Management: −$15,758
• − HOA: −$5,520
• − Depreciation: −$17,309
• Taxable income: $97,402
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$23,376
• After-tax cash flow: $77,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new construction condo at Forest Ridge at Loon Mountain is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a thoughtfully designed floor plan. It offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and 1,475 sq ft of living space. The property is ideal for a primary residence, second home, or investment property, with access to resort-style amenities and convenient location near skiing, hiking, and other recreational activities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Add a smart home system for convenience and energy efficiency — Enhances home automation and energy savings.
• Both Install smart locks for added security — Improves security and convenience for residents and potential buyers.
• Both Add a smart thermostat for better climate control — Saves energy and provides better comfort for residents and potential buyers.
• Both Install a smart security system for added peace of mind — Enhances security and provides peace of mind for residents and potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Add a smart home system for convenience and energy efficiency — Enhances home automation and energy savings. ↑
• Both Install smart locks for added security — Improves security and convenience for residents and potential buyers. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat for better climate control — Saves energy and provides better comfort for residents and potential buyers. ↑
• Both Install a smart security system for added peace of mind — Enhances security and provides peace of mind for residents and potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln-Woodstock School District
• NCES district ID: 3304260
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #9328
• State rank: #140 of 171 in NH

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #9736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NH
• Population (ZIP): 1,484

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 12% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Chinese 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Current HPI: 531.2395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $595,000 PrimeMLS