242 Pear St · Cedar Point, TX 77351

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured public records · 150 Days on market

Built 1983 10,001 sqft lot $80/sqft · 25% above area Est $60k · 25% over $65/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy easygoing lake living in this cozy two bedroom, two bath home located in the Lake Livingston area with direct lake access, offering a relaxed setting that feels welcoming from the moment you step inside. The inviting interior creates a comfortable retreat after a day outdoors, while the back deck provides a great place to unwind or gather with guests, and the fenced backyard adds privacy and room to enjoy the natural surroundings. In addition to the home, the property includes three cleared, empty lots ready for future building or manufactured homes, creating added flexibility for expansion or additional income producing living spaces all in one convenient location. Whether used as a full-time residence or a weekend escape, this property offers a peaceful connection to lake life with room to grow. Schedule your private showing and explore the possibilities today.

Key facts

• Direct lake access
• Back deck
• Three cleared lots

Tags

• DIRECT LAKE ACCESS
• BACK DECK
• FENCED BACKYARD
• THREE CLEARED LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.8% in Cedar Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,509 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $75k implies a 266% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.09%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,000
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 25.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
390 Goldenrod	0.41mi	2/2.0	924 (-2%)	8mo	$26,000	$28	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $6,982
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $30,965
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,730/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $802

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 132 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 131 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 130 DOM
18. 2026-03-11
    price $75,000 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Enjoy easygoing lake living in this cozy two bedroom, two bath home located in the Lake Livingston area with direct lake access, offering a relaxed setting that feels welcoming from the moment you step inside. The inviting interior creates a comfortable retreat after a day outdoors, while the back deck provides a great place to unwind or gather with guests, and the fenced backyard adds privacy and room to enjoy the natural surroundings. In addition to the home, the property includes three cleared, empty lots ready for future building or manufactured homes, creating added flexibility for expansion or additional income producing living spaces all in one convenient location. Whether used as a full-time residence or a weekend escape, this property offers a peaceful connection to lake life with room to grow. Schedule your private showing and explore the possibilities today.

19. 2026-03-03
    price $90,000 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Enjoy easygoing lake living in this cozy two bedroom, two bath home located in the Lake Livingston area with direct lake access, offering a relaxed setting that feels welcoming from the moment you step inside. The inviting interior creates a comfortable retreat after a day outdoors, while the back deck provides a great place to unwind or gather with guests, and the fenced backyard adds privacy and room to enjoy the natural surroundings. In addition to the home, the property includes three cleared, empty lots ready for future building or manufactured homes, creating added flexibility for expansion or additional income producing living spaces all in one convenient location. Whether used as a full-time residence or a weekend escape, this property offers a peaceful connection to lake life with room to grow. Schedule your private showing and explore the possibilities today.

20. 2026-01-20
    listed $100,000 Active 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Enjoy easygoing lake living in this cozy two bedroom, two bath home located in the Lake Livingston area with direct lake access, offering a relaxed setting that feels welcoming from the moment you step inside. The inviting interior creates a comfortable retreat after a day outdoors, while the back deck provides a great place to unwind or gather with guests, and the fenced backyard adds privacy and room to enjoy the natural surroundings. In addition to the home, the property includes three cleared, empty lots ready for future building or manufactured homes, creating added flexibility for expansion or additional income producing living spaces all in one convenient location. Whether used as a full-time residence or a weekend escape, this property offers a peaceful connection to lake life with room to grow. Schedule your private showing and explore the possibilities today.

21. 2006-08-08
    soldstatus $20,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,730 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,730 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,730
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,134
• − Management: −$1,134
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$632
• After-tax cash flow: $2,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onalaska ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833690
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3616
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cedar Point

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1509
• US rank: #25794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Point, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+265.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2006-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $20,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,730 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.