445 Augusta Dr · Hernando, MS 38632

$345,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,799 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1994 0.50 ac lot Est $317k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the desirable Hernando Hills Golf Community, this beautifully updated home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and convenience. The main level features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths, complemented by attractive laminate flooring throughout the primary living areas. The kitchen is a standout with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a built-in eating area--perfect for casual dining--while a formal dining room provides an ideal space for entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find a large bonus room that can easily serve as a 4th bedroom, playroom, or home office--flexibility to fit your lifestyle. Step outside to enjoy the expansive deck overlooking a peacefu

Key facts

• Shared pond
• Granite countertops
• Built-in eating area

Tags

• HERNANDO HILLS GOLF COMMUNITY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUILT-IN EATING AREA
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• SHARED POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.3% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#44 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elem (779 students, 100% FRL); Hernando Middle School (math 75% / reading 57%, grade A-, #2 of 179 statewide, top 1%, 1,150 students, 100% FRL); Hernando High School (math 69% / reading 62%, grade B, #2 of 197 statewide, top 1%, 1,419 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Desoto County School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 407 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,840 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.14%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,624
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1106 Fawn Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,735 (-4%)	3mo	$307,000	$177	82
782 Fairway Trl	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+0%)	5mo	$319,900	$178	74
1501 Mount Pleasant Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,798 (-0%)	6mo	$280,000	$156	68
112 Forked Creek Pkwy	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,661 (-8%)	2mo	$299,900	$181	58
1230 E Cross Creek Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,921 (+7%)	7mo	$319,900	$167	58
781 Cedar Trace Cir	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,864 (+4%)	7mo	$345,000	$185	55
136 N Parkway St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,887 (+5%)	3mo	$305,000	$162	55
41 Cross Creek Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-9%)	10mo	$288,000	$176	50
1491 Biloxi St	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,009 (+12%)	8mo	$299,900	$149	45
1478 E Lake Front Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,963 (+9%)	9mo	$316,900	$161	44
994 Deer Creek Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,064 (+15%)	7mo	$359,900	$174	42
1715 Tara Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-14%)	4mo	$282,500	$182	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-69,553
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-98,248
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38632

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,628 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,584/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,745

Max offer price $328,767

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $6	+0% $-92	+5% $-190	+10% $-287
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-196	+0% $-92	+5% $12	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $-4	base $-92	+0.5pp $-181	+1.0pp $-272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
814 Byhalia Rd Hernando, MS	4.0	3.0	2531	$2,400	$0.95	3d	1	0.38mi
52 Forked Creek Pkwy Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	2300	$2,340	$1.02	45d	1	0.42mi
1324 Biloxi St Hernando, MS	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,950	$1.22	25d	1	0.48mi
89 Shady Lane Cv E Hernando, MS	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,650	$1.06	13d	1	0.62mi
947 Clubhouse Dr Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	1713	$2,495	$1.46	45d	1	0.65mi
272 Fairway Trace Dr Lot $3800 Hernando, MS	4.0	2.0	2000	$3,800	$1.90	45d	1	0.96mi
1670 Timber Creek Dr Hernando, MS	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,945	$1.16	45d	1	1.22mi
2159 Timberlane St Hernando, MS	4.0	2.5	2150	$4,500	$2.09	6d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $345,000
3. 2026-04-06
   listed $349,900 Active
4. 2025-02-22
   historical
5. 2025-02-18
   price $329,900
6. 2025-01-15
   price $337,400
7. 2024-11-14
   listed $339,900 Active
8. 2024-09-16
   historical
9. 2024-09-13
   price $349,900
10. 2024-08-23
    listed $369,000 Active
11. 2022-06-14
    soldstatus
12. 2021-10-11
    historical
13. 2020-04-13
    soldstatus
14. 2010-03-31
    soldstatus
15. 2010-03-29
    soldstatus
16. 2010-03-29
    soldstatus
17. 2010-02-11
    historical
18. 2009-12-28
    listed $176,600
19. 2009-12-28
    listed $176,600
20. 2009-02-26
    listed $180,000
21. 1994-05-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,584 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,726 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 5.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$2,584
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,523
• − Management: −$2,523
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$7,177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,722
• After-tax cash flow: $620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 31,374
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 31,374
• Household income: $93,583
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.49%
• Current HPI: 176.8843
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+91.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $345,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-06 Listed $349,900 MLSU
• 2025-02-22 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $329,900 MLSU
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $337,400 MLSU
• 2024-11-14 Listed $339,900 MLSU
• 2024-09-16 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-09-13 Price Changed $349,900 MLSU
• 2024-08-23 Listed $369,000 MLSU
• 2022-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2020-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-03-29 Sold (MLS) — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2010-03-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2010-02-11 Delisted — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2009-12-28 Listed $176,600 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2009-12-28 Listed $176,600 MLSU
• 2009-02-26 Listed $180,000 MLSU
• 1994-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,584 · +17.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.