191 Sylvan Lake Rd #30 · Chelsea Cove, NY 12533

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · Condo · 275 Days on market

Built 1940 Good condition $103/sqft · 20% above area Est $74k · 20% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do not wait, this freshly updated cabin will NOT last. This seasonal home, managed from April-November, makes a great destination for 'snowbirds' or locals looking to find some peace outside of the big city. This open concept home boasts many updates including new floors, freshly paint walls, new kitchen/cabinets/farmhouse sink, new plumbing, electrical panel, new lighting and more. Enter the home through a bright and airy living room with wall-to-wall windows and continue into an open concept 'great room' which uses an oversized central kitchen and dining space to seamlessly integrate living and entertainment spaces. Private center hallway in rear of home provides access to two well sized bedrooms which share a beautifully designed spa bath area. Exterior of the home features freshly stained deck and secluded stone paver entryway. Amenities include community pool & clubhouse. Close proximity to Sylvan Lake & Town of Beekman Recreation Center ensure that you will have plenty to do Spring to Fall. Less than 2 minute drive from TSP as per google Maps. Make your purchase now so you're ready to go before the season ends. Note, some pictures are Virtually staged.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT HOME
• NEW KITCHEN
• FRESHLY STAINED DECK
• SECLUDED STONE PAVER ENTRYWAY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $89k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $996 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 2.5% in Chelsea Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $89k implies a 305% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.97%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,313
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: 19.76%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $49,059
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $124,547
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12533

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $996

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,058	-5% $1,027	+0% $996	+5% $965	+10% $935
Rent	-10% $835	-5% $916	+0% $996	+5% $1,077	+10% $1,157
Rate	-1.0pp $1,041	-0.5pp $1,019	base $996	+0.5pp $973	+1.0pp $950

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 Miller Rd Hopewell Junction, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,900	$2.53	44d	3	0.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 274 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 273 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 272 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 266 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 265 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 264 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 260 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 259 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 256 DOM
15. 2025-09-16
    listed $89,000 Active 1191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1191 chars)

    Do not wait, this freshly updated cabin will NOT last. This seasonal home, managed from April-November, makes a great destination for 'snowbirds' or locals looking to find some peace outside of the big city. This open concept home boasts many updates including new floors, freshly paint walls, new kitchen/cabinets/farmhouse sink, new plumbing, electrical panel, new lighting and more. Enter the home through a bright and airy living room with wall-to-wall windows and continue into an open concept 'great room' which uses an oversized central kitchen and dining space to seamlessly integrate living and entertainment spaces. Private center hallway in rear of home provides access to two well sized bedrooms which share a beautifully designed spa bath area. Exterior of the home features freshly stained deck and secluded stone paver entryway. Amenities include community pool & clubhouse. Close proximity to Sylvan Lake & Town of Beekman Recreation Center ensure that you will have plenty to do Spring to Fall. Less than 2 minute drive from TSP as per google Maps. Make your purchase now so you're ready to go before the season ends. Note, some pictures are Virtually staged.

16. 2024-09-30
    soldstatus $22,000 Closed 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    Diamond in the rough at View Hill Cooperative! Sold As-Is for reduced price, buy it now and make this cottage your own. This home, located in a seasonal community (open April 15-October 15) is just minutes from Sylvan Lake and boasts a private setting, perennial gardens, on site laundry, clubhouse, playground, in ground community pool, assigned and guest parking and more. Sylvan Lake boating site, tennis, golf are all nearby. Only 1.15 hours from NYC as per Google Maps. Good option for weekend/vacation retreat or for snowbirds. Make an offer, this home is available immediately!

17. 2024-09-11
    status Pending 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    Diamond in the rough at View Hill Cooperative! Sold As-Is for reduced price, buy it now and make this cottage your own. This home, located in a seasonal community (open April 15-October 15) is just minutes from Sylvan Lake and boasts a private setting, perennial gardens, on site laundry, clubhouse, playground, in ground community pool, assigned and guest parking and more. Sylvan Lake boating site, tennis, golf are all nearby. Only 1.15 hours from NYC as per Google Maps. Good option for weekend/vacation retreat or for snowbirds. Make an offer, this home is available immediately!

18. 2024-08-06
    price $29,999 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    Diamond in the rough at View Hill Cooperative! Sold As-Is for reduced price, buy it now and make this cottage your own. This home, located in a seasonal community (open April 15-October 15) is just minutes from Sylvan Lake and boasts a private setting, perennial gardens, on site laundry, clubhouse, playground, in ground community pool, assigned and guest parking and more. Sylvan Lake boating site, tennis, golf are all nearby. Only 1.15 hours from NYC as per Google Maps. Good option for weekend/vacation retreat or for snowbirds. Make an offer, this home is available immediately!

19. 2024-08-06
    status Active 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    Diamond in the rough at View Hill Cooperative! Sold As-Is for reduced price, buy it now and make this cottage your own. This home, located in a seasonal community (open April 15-October 15) is just minutes from Sylvan Lake and boasts a private setting, perennial gardens, on site laundry, clubhouse, playground, in ground community pool, assigned and guest parking and more. Sylvan Lake boating site, tennis, golf are all nearby. Only 1.15 hours from NYC as per Google Maps. Good option for weekend/vacation retreat or for snowbirds. Make an offer, this home is available immediately!

20. 2024-08-01
    status Pending 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    Diamond in the rough at View Hill Cooperative! Sold As-Is for reduced price, buy it now and make this cottage your own. This home, located in a seasonal community (open April 15-October 15) is just minutes from Sylvan Lake and boasts a private setting, perennial gardens, on site laundry, clubhouse, playground, in ground community pool, assigned and guest parking and more. Sylvan Lake boating site, tennis, golf are all nearby. Only 1.15 hours from NYC as per Google Maps. Good option for weekend/vacation retreat or for snowbirds. Make an offer, this home is available immediately!

21. 2024-06-21
    listed $35,000 Active 589-char remark

    Show marketing remark (589 chars)

    Diamond in the rough at View Hill Cooperative! Sold As-Is for reduced price, buy it now and make this cottage your own. This home, located in a seasonal community (open April 15-October 15) is just minutes from Sylvan Lake and boasts a private setting, perennial gardens, on site laundry, clubhouse, playground, in ground community pool, assigned and guest parking and more. Sylvan Lake boating site, tennis, golf are all nearby. Only 1.15 hours from NYC as per Google Maps. Good option for weekend/vacation retreat or for snowbirds. Make an offer, this home is available immediately!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $11,205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,689
• After-tax cash flow: $9,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This updated cabin is move-in ready with fresh paint, new flooring, and a new kitchen. It offers a great location with a community pool and access to Sylvan Lake.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chelsea Cove

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,325
• Household income: $141,585
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 190.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.32%
• Current HPI: 232.2351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+154.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-16 Listed $89,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Sold (MLS) $22,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $29,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-21 Listed $35,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid