225 NE Ernst St #93 · Oak Harbor, WA 98277

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $116k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for affordable Island living? This beautifully maintained home located in Oak Harbor's premier senior park (55+) Western Village, is the answer! Set at the end of a dead-end street for additional privacy, yet right in the heart of town, this home offers functional serenity. Upon entering you are greeted by the bright, open-concept layout including dining area w/ built-in hutch. The spacious eat-in kitchen has loads of cupboard space & a wonderfully oversized garden window, ideal for growing herbs. Don't overlook the generous guest bedroom, full bath & dedicated laundry/utility room. The primary bedroom sits at the back of the home, boasting an expansive ensuite w/ loads

Key facts

• Expansive ensuite
• Built-in hutch
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• END OF A DEAD-END STREET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• OVERSIZED GARDEN WINDOW
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY UTILITY ROOM
• EXPANSIVE ENSUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount: $850; Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community (Western Village); Park amenities: clubhouse, common area, laundry, high-speed internet available; Pets: see remarks; Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; RV parking available in the park
• Utilities: Electric energy; Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater (located in exterior rear closet); Power by PSE
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces northwest; Manufactured after 6/15/1976; Good condition; Paramount make; Mobile home remains
• Construction: Metal/vinyl and wood construction; Composition roof; Tie-down foundation
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl and wood exterior; Awnings; Wood skirting; Dead-end street; Paved access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (includes 2 bathtubs and 2 showers)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Water heater; Ceiling fan(s); Double pane windows; Drapes; Patio/porch/deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer/Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 2.7% in Oak Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#149 in WA, #3,120 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D+.
• Oak Harbor School District (town): math 49% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #98 of 291 in WA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 402 units permitted in Island County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Island County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $90k implies a 309% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.16%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,544
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 NE Ernst St #26	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-2%)	12mo	$110,000	$98	87
225 NE Ernst St #73	0.12mi	2/2.0	976 (-15%)	2mo	$126,900	$130	68
1320 N Oak Harbor St #97	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (-0%)	1mo	$55,000	$48	66
225 NE Ernst St #17	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	23mo	$160,000	$152	65
1361 NE Goldie Rd #17	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+4%)	10mo	$76,000	$64	52
1320 N Oak Harbor St #178	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,202 (+5%)	15mo	$121,000	$101	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $58,736
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.36×
• Total profit: $160,357
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98277

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,027 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $213/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $1,074

Break-even live

Break-even rent $667

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,125	-5% $1,100	+0% $1,074	+5% $1,049	+10% $1,023
Rent	-10% $914	-5% $994	+0% $1,074	+5% $1,154	+10% $1,234
Rate	-1.0pp $1,120	-0.5pp $1,097	base $1,074	+0.5pp $1,051	+1.0pp $1,027

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 N Oak Harbor St Unit B102 Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,015	$1.57	44d	1	0.14mi
865 N Oak Harbor St Unit 203 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,565	$2.09	44d	1	0.34mi
395 S Oak Harbor St Unit 207 [[?]165] Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,030	$2.03	44d	1	0.43mi
563 NE Kettle St Unit A2 Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.5	1241	$2,415	$1.95	44d	1	0.43mi
310 SE Midway Blvd Unit 207 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	791	$1,640	$2.07	44d	1	0.63mi
141 SW 6th Ave Unit D101 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.5	982	$1,915	$1.95	44d	1	0.65mi
33010 State Route 20 Unit B Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,440	$2.22	44d	1	0.67mi
413 SE Maylor St Apt 202 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,650	$1.87	44d	1	0.68mi
790 NW Dory Dr Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,415	$1.80	44d	1	0.71mi
1051 SE 8th Ave Unit C201 Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	970	$1,500	$1.55	44d	1	0.79mi
1282 NW Lanyard Loop #2 Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.5	1330	$2,315	$1.74	44d	1	0.91mi
1661 NE 16th Ave Oak Harbor, WA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,840	$2.23	2d	1	1.00mi
1518 NW 9th Pl Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.0	1167	$2,415	$2.07	21d	1	1.09mi
30875 State Route 20 Unit M3 Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.5	1437	$2,415	$1.68	44d	1	1.26mi
1651 SW Mulberry Pl Unit E101 Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,215	$1.71	44d	1	1.45mi
1725 SW Nienhuis St Oak Harbor, WA	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,515	$1.90	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    remarks 691-char remark
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $90,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $213 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $882 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$669/yr (+$56/mo · 313.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$213
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,946
• − Management: −$1,946
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $12,112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,907
• After-tax cash flow: $9,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oak Harbor School District
• NCES district ID: 5305940
• Math proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,606
• Composite: 49.07/100
• National rank: #4427
• State rank: #98 of 291 in WA

Livability — Oak Harbor

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #3120

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Harbor, WA
• County: Island County · 71,196 people
• City population: 40,917
• Metro: Oak Harbor, WA
• Population (ZIP): 40,917
• Household income: $83,253
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Island County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,019 people
• By 2030: 81,329 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 78,552 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 77,042 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 80,799 · -1.5%
• By 2100: 84,451 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Island

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 56.8% · R 40.3% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.3pp toward D · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+12.0 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -608.47%
• Current HPI: 188.2874
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.36%
• Metro: Oak Harbor, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+260.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $90,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-13 Sold (MLS) $22,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-30 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-11 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-01 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-23 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-23 Price Changed $24,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-24 Listed $29,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-20 Sold (MLS) $30,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-19 Listed $31,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 1999-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1983-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $213 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.