Independence Plan · Grangerland, TX 77302

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Independence keeps families connected, with space for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Separate dining and kitchen areas offer casual and formal gathering options and the spacious great room is the perfect family retreat space. The study is ideal for a quiet homework space or office. Choose a covered patio off the dining area for al fresco dining.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 955 days

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $269,417.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $217,744 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.25%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,417
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -5.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16136 Sepia Manor St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	2mo	$262,339	$174	96
15022 English Rose Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	3mo	$258,510	$171	95
16128 Sepia Manor St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	5mo	$264,630	$175	94
14526 Rustic Birch Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+2%)	2mo	$235,000	$153	80
16215 Palermo Oaks	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,581 (+6%)	9mo	$249,900	$158	70
14531 Cedar Ledge Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	16mo	$271,088	$179	64
14558 Rustic Birch Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+6%)	12mo	$249,990	$157	63
14519 Cedar Ledge Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+6%)	13mo	$276,939	$175	60
14914 Ash Landing Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,496 (0%)	15mo	$274,860	$184	53
14755 Maple Pond Pl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,496 (0%)	18mo	$264,860	$177	52
14960 Scarlet Branch Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+12%)	1mo	$295,000	$176	45
16766 Lake Cir	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,438 (-4%)	18mo	$170,000	$118	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-51,990
• Equity at exit: $40,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-54,038
• Equity at exit: $23,294

Cash invested: $75,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,177 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,413
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,041/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,357

Max offer price $248,914

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-49	+0% $-142	+5% $-235	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-314	-5% $-228	+0% $-142	+5% $-56	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-73	base $-142	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,354
• Closing costs: $8,083
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	26d	1	1.07mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	45d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 953 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 952 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 951 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 950 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 948 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,990 Active 944 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,990 Active 943 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,990 Active 942 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $254,990 Active 939 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,990 Active 938 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,990 Active 936 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,990 Active 935 DOM
14. 2025-12-21
    price $254,990 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    The Independence keeps families connected, with space for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Separate dining and kitchen areas offer casual and formal gathering options and the spacious great room is the perfect family retreat space. The study is ideal for a quiet homework space or office. Choose a covered patio off the dining area for al fresco dining.

15. 2024-09-18
    price $277,990 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    The Independence keeps families connected, with space for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Separate dining and kitchen areas offer casual and formal gathering options and the spacious great room is the perfect family retreat space. The study is ideal for a quiet homework space or office. Choose a covered patio off the dining area for al fresco dining.

16. 2024-04-18
    price $276,990 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    The Independence keeps families connected, with space for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Separate dining and kitchen areas offer casual and formal gathering options and the spacious great room is the perfect family retreat space. The study is ideal for a quiet homework space or office. Choose a covered patio off the dining area for al fresco dining.

17. 2024-03-03
    price $274,990 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    The Independence keeps families connected, with space for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Separate dining and kitchen areas offer casual and formal gathering options and the spacious great room is the perfect family retreat space. The study is ideal for a quiet homework space or office. Choose a covered patio off the dining area for al fresco dining.

18. 2023-11-08
    listed $269,990 Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    The Independence keeps families connected, with space for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Separate dining and kitchen areas offer casual and formal gathering options and the spacious great room is the perfect family retreat space. The study is ideal for a quiet homework space or office. Choose a covered patio off the dining area for al fresco dining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,092
• − Property taxes: −$4,041
• − Insurance: −$1,347
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,090
• − Management: −$2,090
• − Depreciation: −$7,838
• Taxable loss: −$6,369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,529
• After-tax cash flow: $-172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a neutral paint scheme, modern appliances, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve the home's appearance and increase its value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve the home's appearance and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-21 Price Changed $254,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $277,990 Zillow
• 2024-04-18 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-03 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $269,990 Zillow