661 Payne Ave · St. Paul, MN 55130

$499,999

16 bd · 16.0 ba · 3,600 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1884 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

A solid investment opportunity in a high demand rental area. This building is section 8 approved and enrolled in the city of St Paul's 4-D affordable housing program, offering property tax reductions and long term affordability incentives. Three out of four units are currently rented. The building sits on a deep lot with a shared backyard that includes a patio, grassy area, and garden space. Walkable to local favorites like Yarusso Bros, Minnesota Music Cafe, and the Bruce Vento Trail. Strong cash flow opportunity with rents below market.

Key facts

• Cash flow potential
• Residential garage
• Double lot

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED
• DOUBLE LOT
• CASH FLOW POTENTIAL
• MIXED-USE ZONING
• COMMERCIAL GARAGE SPACE
• RESIDENTIAL GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total of 4 units; Gross income approximately $57,600; Net operating income approximately $44,450; Estimated expenses: Water & sewer $1,450; Trash $2,200; Electric $2,600; Insurance $3,650; Maintenance $2,500; Other $750

Exterior

• Parking: Heated garage; Multiple garages; Storage; Garage with 4 spaces
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Electric service with circuit breakers; Fuel: Electric and Natural Gas
• Home design: Residential income property; Two levels; Main level finished area approximately 1,300; Above grade finished area approximately 2,600
• Construction: Block construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Wood fencing; Corner lot; Public transit within ~6 blocks; City street frontage; Balcony (one unit)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 bedrooms across units (individual units: two 2-bedroom units; two studios/1-bedroom-size units)
• Bathrooms: Each unit includes 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Block basement; Enclosed porch; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($46k/yr) — positive. Per door: $968/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $500k).
• Recommended offer: $492k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,746/mo this rent would consume 194% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 818% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $395k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1884 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $492,499 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1884 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.20%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $173,904
• Equity at exit: $74,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $503,513
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55130

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 19.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,746 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,466/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,837
• Net cashflow: $3,873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,843

Max offer price $499,999

Occupancy floor 51%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$8,748
Total (4 units)			$8,746

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,999 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,999 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,999 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,999 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,999 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,999 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,999 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,999 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $499,999 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,999 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,999 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,999 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,466 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,033 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,567/yr (+$131/mo · 63.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $104,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$2,466
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,396
• − Management: −$8,396
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable income: $40,641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,754
• After-tax cash flow: $36,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 17,775
• Household income: $54,130
• Rent vs Own: 54.0% rent · 46.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 818.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 47% Black 22% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Swedish 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Philippines, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 37% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.12%
• Current HPI: 281.2507
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+170.4% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $499,999 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $395,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-13 Sold (MLS) $395,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-02 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-16 Listed $394,600 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-31 Sold (MLS) $125,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-20 Listed $115,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-17 Listed $164,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-09 Listed $249,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-25 Listed $199,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-04 Listed $324,700 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $274,500 Public Records
• 2006-12-15 Sold (MLS) $274,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-22 Listed $299,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-10 Listed $345,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $322,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $322,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $186,500 Public Records
• 2000-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $186,500 Public Records
• 2000-03-14 Sold (MLS) $186,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-01-13 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-12-14 Listed $184,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,466 · -53.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.