2414 State Route 19 · Wellsville, NY 14895

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1965 0.71 ac lot $37/sqft · 64% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED FOR QUICK SALE! Enjoy the best of country living with this well-maintained ranch-style home, offering comfort, functionality, and space both inside and out. Set on a peaceful property, this home provides the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a thoughtfully designed layout with an inviting atmosphere and quality finishes throughout. The kitchen is a standout feature, complete with beautiful granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and plenty of workspace, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Car enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those in need of extra storage will appreciate the impressive three-car heated garage, providing year-round comfort and convenience. In addition to the garage, the property includes multiple outbuildings, offering endless possibilities for storage, equipment, or creative use. A dedicated workshop space adds even more versatility, perfect for projects, crafts, or running a home-based business. The outdoor setting enhances the appeal, delivering true country living with room to grow, relax, and enjoy the surrounding landscape. Listing photos contain AI enhanced images. Home is empty and vacant.

Key facts

• Ranch style home
• Outdoor setting
• Granite countertops

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• THREE CAR HEATED GARAGE
• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• DEDICATED WORKSHOP SPACE
• OUTDOOR SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $801 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.5% vs local median 6.6% in Wellsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#336 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment C-.
• Wellsville Central School District (town): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #442 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $134k (73%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.76%
• DSCR: 4.06
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,788
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -63.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $78,193
• Equity at exit: $44,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.1%
• Equity multiple: 14.61×
• Total profit: $190,207
• Equity at exit: $96,945

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14895

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $801

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
46 Pine St Wellsville, NY	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $129,900 1188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1188 chars)

   REDUCED FOR QUICK SALE! Enjoy the best of country living with this well-maintained ranch-style home, offering comfort, functionality, and space both inside and out. Set on a peaceful property, this home provides the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a thoughtfully designed layout with an inviting atmosphere and quality finishes throughout. The kitchen is a standout feature, complete with beautiful granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and plenty of workspace, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Car enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those in need of extra storage will appreciate the impressive three-car heated garage, providing year-round comfort and convenience. In addition to the garage, the property includes multiple outbuildings, offering endless possibilities for storage, equipment, or creative use. A dedicated workshop space adds even more versatility, perfect for projects, crafts, or running a home-based business. The outdoor setting enhances the appeal, delivering true country living with room to grow, relax, and enjoy the surrounding landscape. Listing photos contain AI enhanced images. Home is empty and vacant.

2. 2026-04-13
   listed $184,000 Active 1188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1188 chars)

   REDUCED FOR QUICK SALE! Enjoy the best of country living with this well-maintained ranch-style home, offering comfort, functionality, and space both inside and out. Set on a peaceful property, this home provides the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a thoughtfully designed layout with an inviting atmosphere and quality finishes throughout. The kitchen is a standout feature, complete with beautiful granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and plenty of workspace, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Car enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those in need of extra storage will appreciate the impressive three-car heated garage, providing year-round comfort and convenience. In addition to the garage, the property includes multiple outbuildings, offering endless possibilities for storage, equipment, or creative use. A dedicated workshop space adds even more versatility, perfect for projects, crafts, or running a home-based business. The outdoor setting enhances the appeal, delivering true country living with room to grow, relax, and enjoy the surrounding landscape. Listing photos contain AI enhanced images. Home is empty and vacant.

3. 2015-12-02
   historical
4. 2015-09-14
   listed $94,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $9,371
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,249
• After-tax cash flow: $7,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630480
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,964
• Composite: 39.71/100
• National rank: #3903
• State rank: #442 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wellsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #5669

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,117

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.16%
• Current HPI: 280.3569
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+38.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $184,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-12-02 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2015-09-14 Listed $94,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,488 · +34.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.