14682 Fordline St · Southgate, MI 48195

$190,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1971 5,227 sqft lot Est $173k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BD/1BA GREY BRICK RANCH CLOSE TO SHOPPING & SCHOOLS * LARGE CORNER LOT W/ PRIVACY FENCE * UPDATED OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN & UPDATED BATH * APPL. STAY * HARDWOOD THRU-OUT * VINYL WINDOWS * COPPER PLUMBING * GREAT PLACE TO CALL HOME!

Key facts

• Vinyl windows
• Updated bath
• Large corner lot

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• PRIVACY FENCE
• UPDATED OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATH
• HARDWOOD THRU-OUT
• VINYL WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built with above-grade finished area of 1,032
• Exterior features: Paved road; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Free-standing refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Porch; Back yard fencing; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($538/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.2% in Southgate — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in MI, #582 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Southgate Community School District (suburban): math 21% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #379 of 540 in MI (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fordline Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,035 of 1,397 statewide, top 77%, 288 students, 64% FRL); Davidson Middle School (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #343 of 493 statewide, top 72%, 631 students, 52% FRL); Southgate Anderson High School (math 22% / reading 62%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 990 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $190k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $169,103 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.01%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14559 Balsam St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,026 (-1%)	2mo	$165,000	$161	84
14706 Eureka Rd	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+5%)	2mo	$192,000	$176	78
14834 Kennebec St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+5%)	7mo	$160,000	$147	75
15444 Mulberry St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,073 (+4%)	1mo	$180,000	$168	70
14620 Trenton Rd	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+7%)	6mo	$172,000	$156	68
15464 Mulberry St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,073 (+4%)	2mo	$198,000	$185	68
15338 Helen St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,096 (+6%)	4mo	$160,000	$146	67
15110 Drake St	0.46mi	3/1.5	972 (-6%)	2mo	$155,000	$159	65
14420 Trenton Rd	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	910 (-12%)	3mo	$165,000	$181	57
15675 Mulberry St	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,073 (+4%)	1mo	$204,000	$190	56
13668 Agnes St	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,180 (+14%)	0mo	$180,000	$153	51
13080 Poplar St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+8%)	1mo	$227,500	$203	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-26,132
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,536
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48195

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,586/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,634

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $99	+0% $45	+5% $-9	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $-22	+0% $45	+5% $112	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $93	base $45	+0.5pp $-4	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13750 Village Green Blvd Southgate, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	862	$1,620	$1.88	0d	10	0.63mi
13185 Sycamore St Southgate, MI	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	26d	1	0.79mi
13165 Turnberry Ct Southgate, MI	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,795	$1.41	7d	1	0.82mi
13165 Turnberry Ct Southgate, MI	2.0	2.0	1275	$1,795	$1.41	45d	1	0.82mi
13861 Strathcona St Southgate, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	797	$1,140	$1.43	0d	5	0.83mi
13210 Village Park Dr Southgate, MI	2.0	1.0	630	$1,125	$1.78	0d	9	0.97mi
12939 Devoe St Southgate, MI	3.0	1.0	1177	$1,695	$1.44	45d	1	1.06mi
13020 Pullman St Southgate, MI	4.0	1.0	1050	$1,550	$1.48	4d	1	1.07mi
15027 Brookview Dr Riverview, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	1020	$1,499	$1.47	0d	34	1.38mi
1569 Sycamore St Wyandotte, MI	3.0	1.0	944	$1,695	$1.80	45d	1	1.44mi
17400 Fort St Riverview, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,225	$1.53	0d	11	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $190,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active Under Contract 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $190,000 Active Under Contract 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $190,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,586 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,756 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$170/yr (+$14/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,586
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$639
• After-tax cash flow: $1,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southgate Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2632340
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,234
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7591
• State rank: #379 of 540 in MI

Livability — Southgate

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #582

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southgate, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 29,366
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 29,366
• Household income: $66,118
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 727.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.28%
• Current HPI: 207.9776
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+52.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $190,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $190,000 REALCOMP
• 2015-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-04-10 Listed $124,899 REALCOMP
• 2006-04-10 Listed $124,899 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,586 · -17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.