The Champion Plan · St. Augustine Shores, FL 32086

$235,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured · 360 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Moultrie Oaks was established in 1985, and continues to this day, as a family owned and operated manufactured home community for retirees looking for a winter escape. Our community is composed of approximately 220 homes situated on 43 acres. The pristine beaches of St. Augustine and Crescent Beach are within a 10-mile drive of Moultrie Oaks. Whether you are looking for a permanent or seasonal residence, Moultrie Oaks 55+ community should be your First Choice for an affordable, active Florida 55+ lifestyle on the First Coast.

Key facts

• Parking
• Listed 360 days

🏗️ New construction. The $235,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $320,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $236k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-621 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 400 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 360 days — a 12% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $201,322 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 360 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.32%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,000
• List price: $235,900
• Delta: -26.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 Hayley Rd	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (+13%)	3mo	$320,000	$247	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-95,639
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-150,845
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32086

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $230,140

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4420 Carter Rd #43 Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	1.5	870	$1,450	$1.67	23d	1	0.52mi
146 Phoenetia Dr St Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,900	$1.82	3d	1	0.73mi
68 Angelo Ln Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,645	$1.83	13d	1	0.75mi
213 Cantabria Way Saint Augustine, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	2d	5	1.36mi
213 Cantabria Way Saint Augustine, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1545	$2,200	$1.42	14d	9	1.36mi
3884 Osprey Cir Unit B St. Augustine, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,250	$1.58	17d	1	1.39mi
3884 Osprey Cir Unit B St. Augustine, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,250	$1.58	23d	1	1.39mi
250 Brainard Dr Unit A St. Augustine, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	23d	1	1.39mi
707 Augusta Cir Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,868	$1.31	3d	1	1.40mi
204 Augusta Cir Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	1189	$1,750	$1.47	17d	1	1.41mi
204 Augusta Cir Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	1189	$1,750	$1.47	23d	1	1.41mi
1603 Prestwick Pl Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,200	$1.54	23d	1	1.42mi
407 Augusta Cir Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,095	$1.47	7d	1	1.46mi
901 Mariana Pl Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,175	$1.50	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,900 Active 360 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,900 Active 359 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,900 Active 358 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,900 Active 357 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,900 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,900 Active 354 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,900 Active 351 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,900 Active 350 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,900 Active 349 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,900 Active 345 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,900 Active 344 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,900 Active 343 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,900 Active 342 DOM
14. 2025-07-22
    price $235,900 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Moultrie Oaks was established in 1985, and continues to this day, as a family owned and operated manufactured home community for retirees looking for a winter escape. Our community is composed of approximately 220 homes situated on 43 acres. The pristine beaches of St. Augustine and Crescent Beach are within a 10-mile drive of Moultrie Oaks. Whether you are looking for a permanent or seasonal residence, Moultrie Oaks 55+ community should be your First Choice for an affordable, active Florida 55+ lifestyle on the First Coast.

15. 2025-06-24
    listed $229,900 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Moultrie Oaks was established in 1985, and continues to this day, as a family owned and operated manufactured home community for retirees looking for a winter escape. Our community is composed of approximately 220 homes situated on 43 acres. The pristine beaches of St. Augustine and Crescent Beach are within a 10-mile drive of Moultrie Oaks. Whether you are looking for a permanent or seasonal residence, Moultrie Oaks 55+ community should be your First Choice for an affordable, active Florida 55+ lifestyle on the First Coast.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,933
• − Management: −$1,933
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$13,341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,202
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Augustine Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,855
• Household income: $76,512
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 634.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.21%
• Current HPI: 306.2813
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $235,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-24 Listed $229,900 Zillow