Bellflower Plan · DeSoto, TX 75115

$559,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,527 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Bellflower is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that combines open-concept living with flexible spaces to fit your lifestyle. With four spacious bedrooms and three and a half bathrooms, this plan offers room to grow and the comfort of intentional design in every detail. At the heart of the home, an open kitchen and family room create a welcoming space for everyday living and effortless entertaining. A dedicated study at the front of the home provides a quiet retreat for work or creativity, while the flexible dining room can easily transform into a private media room - whatever suits your needs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 82 days

🏗️ New construction. The $559,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $579,834.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $560k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-911 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $448k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $392k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $392k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in DeSoto — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#589 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Duncanville ISD (suburban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #711 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 747 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,919/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 28% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($526k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $391,896 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.73%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $579,834
• List price: $559,990
• Delta: -3.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1017 Vista Ln	0.08mi	4/3.5	3,278 (-7%)	4mo	$510,000	$156	81
2032 Picnic Crk	0.21mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,558 (+1%)	7mo	$565,367	$159	76
933 Vista Ln	0.08mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,229 (-8%)	1mo	$480,000	$149	74
2034 Cascades Ct	0.46mi	4/3.5	3,527 (0%)	9mo	$528,000	$150	71
2009 Holland Dr	0.28mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,558 (+1%)	12mo	$573,000	$161	68
1526 Marshall Dr	0.21mi	4/3.5	3,923 (+11%)	5mo	$399,000	$102	67
2005 Flora Ln	0.33mi	4/3.0	3,282 (-7%)	4mo	$534,900	$163	67
833 Yosemite Dr	0.53mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,557 (+1%)	10mo	$549,173	$154	59
816 Yosemite Dr	0.57mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,261 (-8%)	6mo	$499,000	$153	51
932 Waddle Ln	0.25mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,035 (+14%)	6mo	$699,000	$173	50
925 Ford Dr	0.26mi	5/4.5 (+1)	4,035 (+14%)	12mo	$707,922	$175	44
1854 Masters Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	3,000 (-15%)	4mo	$539,000	$180	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-163,414
• Equity at exit: $86,455

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-261,165
• Equity at exit: $50,133

Cash invested: $162,353 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 65 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 48.8 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $564,990 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 49% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75115

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 747
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,041
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$725 /mo · $8,698/yr
• Insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$823
• Net cashflow: $-911

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,072

Max offer price $447,993

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-510	-5% $-711	+0% $-911	+5% $-1,111	+10% $-1,312
Rent	-10% $-1,221	-5% $-1,066	+0% $-911	+5% $-756	+10% $-602
Rate	-1.0pp $-619	-0.5pp $-764	base $-911	+0.5pp $-1,061	+1.0pp $-1,214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $144,958
• Closing costs: $17,395
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
907 Saint George Pl Desoto, TX	4.0	2.5	2600	$3,500	$1.35	101d	1	1.02mi
1444 Pinnacle Peak Dr DeSoto, TX	3.0	2.0	3336	$1,950	$0.58	10d	1	1.35mi
1424 Cobblestone Dr Desoto, TX	5.0	3.0	2667	$8,950	$3.36	0d	1	1.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $549,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home — Bellflower planNew construction (Plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 3527Built 2026 (listed 2026)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open floor plan (Bellflower plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $559,990 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $559,990 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $559,990 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $559,990 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $559,990 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $559,990 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $559,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $559,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $559,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $559,990 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $559,990 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $559,990 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $559,990 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $559,990 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $559,990 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $559,990 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $559,990 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $559,990 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $559,990 Active 64 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $559,990 Active 63 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $559,990 Active 62 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $559,990 Active 61 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $559,990 Active 60 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $559,990 Active 59 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $559,990 Active 58 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $559,990 Active 57 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $559,990 Active 56 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $559,990 Active 55 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $559,990 Active 54 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $559,990 Active 53 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $559,990 Active 52 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $559,990 Active 51 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $559,990 Active 50 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $559,990 Active 49 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $559,990 Active 48 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $559,990 Active 47 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $559,990 Active 46 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $559,990 Active 45 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $559,990 Active 44 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $559,990 Active 43 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $559,990 Active 42 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $559,990 Active 41 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $559,990 Active 40 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $559,990 Active 39 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $559,990 Active 38 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $559,990 Active 37 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $559,990 Active 36 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $559,990 Active 35 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $559,990 Active 34 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $559,990 Active 33 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,480
• − Property taxes: −$8,698
• − Insurance: −$2,899
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,762
• − Management: −$3,762
• − Depreciation: −$16,868
• Taxable loss: −$21,441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,146
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Bellflower plan is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can further enhance its appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Replace window treatments — Modern window treatments can improve the home's aesthetic ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value ↑
• Resale Add outdoor lighting — Well-lit exterior can make the home more inviting and safer ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

High Duncanville H S F TX #1,234/1,632 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duncanville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817640
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,979
• Composite: 21.71/100
• National rank: #8270
• State rank: #711 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — DeSoto

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #589
• US rank: #11236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: DeSoto, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,979,839 people
• City population: 56,211
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 56,211
• Household income: $82,782
• Rent vs Own: 30.4% rent · 69.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 28% of renters

---

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.49%
• Current HPI: 272.1565
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.60%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $549,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family home — Bellflower planNew construction (Plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 3527Built 2026 (listed 2026)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open floor plan (Bellflower plan)