104 Springfield · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$399,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,999 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2004 0.27 ac lot $200/sqft · 25% below area Est $530k · 25% under $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Positioned on a . 27-acre homesite in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, this single-level residence offers a functional layout and convenient access to shopping and resort amenities. The main living area is filled with natural light from expansive windows, highlighting bamboo flooring, tray ceilings, and detailed crown molding. Centrally located, the island kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, handcrafted maple cabinetry and a generous pantry. From the kitchen, the home flows naturally into a casual living area at the rear with direct access to the backyard, creating an easy transition for everyday living and relaxed entertaining. On the opposite side of the kitchen, a wall separates the formal living and dining area into one expansive front room with classic wainscoting, well suited for gatherings or a more refined setting. The owner's suite includes new carpet, crown molding, a walk-in closet, and room for a sitting area. The ensuite bath is equipped with dual vanities, tile countertops, a tiled shower and a jetted walk-in tub. Two additional guest bedrooms offer flexibility and share a well-appointed hall bath. Exterior features include a German schmear stone façade, tile roof, mature trees, lush landscaping, sprinkler system, fenced yard, pergola and a large patio with retractable awning. Well designed and thoughtfully laid out, the home offers an excellent opportunity for buyers to personalize and enhance in a desirable Horseshoe Bay setting.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Natural light
• Bamboo flooring

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• BAMBOO FLOORING
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• HANDCRAFTED MAPLE CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Horseshoe Bay Proper POA; Annual HOA fee of $360.99 covering common area maintenance; Community park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces; Total of four parking spaces; Two covered spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water; Public sewer; Phone available
• Home design: Single-story home; Slab foundation; Resale property; Tile roof; Stone exterior
• Construction: Built according to public records; Stone construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Rain gutters; Wrought iron fencing; Pergola; Attached guest house; Back yard; Automatic sprinklers; Few trees; Has a view (faces northwest)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Bamboo flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Multiple living areas; Main-level primary suite; No interior steps; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Blinds and drapes
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-796 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (38.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (38.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,134 (38.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.55%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $529,855
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -24.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1502 Hi Cir S	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,911 (-4%)	8mo	$425,000	$222	74
107 Southern Spur	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,033 (+2%)	24mo	$599,000	$295	44
112 Silver Spur Dr	0.46mi	3/3.0	2,286 (+14%)	19mo	$549,000	$240	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-44,268
• Equity at exit: $135,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-30,079
• Equity at exit: $178,633

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,471 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,516/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-796

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,479

Max offer price $258,391

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-570	-5% $-683	+0% $-796	+5% $-909	+10% $-1,022
Rent	-10% $-991	-5% $-894	+0% $-796	+5% $-698	+10% $-601
Rate	-1.0pp $-595	-0.5pp $-694	base $-796	+0.5pp $-899	+1.0pp $-1,005

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,595	$1.42	24d	1	0.03mi
410 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1964	$2,450	$1.25	44d	1	0.19mi
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	44d	1	0.47mi
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	44d	1	0.48mi
512 Side Saddle Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,700	$1.46	44d	1	0.78mi
402 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	2038	$2,200	$1.08	44d	1	0.90mi
106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1764	$2,900	$1.64	44d	1	0.91mi
306 Out Yonder #154 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1900	$1,550	$0.82	24d	1	1.00mi
1406 Prospect Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,700	$1.35	4d	1	1.01mi
305 Fire Dance Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	2416	$3,800	$1.57	44d	1	1.02mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	44d	1	1.03mi
1314 Clayton Nolen Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1885	$2,850	$1.51	24d	1	1.06mi
138 Rivalto Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1501	$3,000	$2.00	44d	1	1.08mi
603 Sunray Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,100	$1.29	24d	1	1.10mi
102 Prairie Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,700	$1.25	44d	1	1.16mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,650	$1.24	44d	1	1.24mi
3201 Oak Ridge Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1655	$3,775	$2.28	4d	1	1.27mi
118 Cap Rock Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.5	2052	$3,800	$1.85	2d	1	1.34mi
306 Enclave Cir Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,850	$1.76	13d	1	1.42mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,950	$1.57	13d	1	1.48mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	11d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $399,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $410,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $410,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $410,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $410,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $410,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $410,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $410,000 Active 1541-char remark
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $410,000 Active 1535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1535 chars)

    Positioned on a . 27-acre homesite in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, this single-level residence offers a functional layout and convenient access to shopping and resort amenities. The main living area is filled with natural light from expansive windows, highlighting bamboo flooring, tray ceilings, and detailed crown molding. Centrally located, the island kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, handcrafted maple cabinetry and a generous pantry. From the kitchen, the home flows naturally into a casual living area at the rear with direct access to the backyard, creating an easy transition for everyday living and relaxed entertaining. On the opposite side of the kitchen, a wall separates the formal living and dining area into one expansive front room with classic wainscoting, well suited for gatherings or a more refined setting. The owner's suite includes new carpet, crown molding, a walk-in closet, and room for a sitting area. The ensuite bath is equipped with dual vanities, tile countertops, a tiled shower and a jetted walk-in tub. Two additional guest bedrooms offer flexibility and share a well-appointed hall bath. Exterior features include a German schmear stone façade, tile roof, mature trees, lush landscaping, sprinkler system, fenced yard, pergola and a large patio with retractable awning. Well designed and thoughtfully laid out, the home offers an excellent opportunity for buyers to personalize and enhance in a desirable Horseshoe Bay setting.

19. 2026-01-27
    price $430,000
20. 2026-01-27
    price
21. 2025-09-25
    price
22. 2025-09-25
    price $449,000
23. 2025-05-13
    listed Active
24. 2014-11-12
    soldstatus
25. 2014-11-06
    soldstatus
26. 2014-10-07
    listed $225,000
27. 2005-07-28
    soldstatus
28. 2004-07-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,516 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,302 · $608/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,786/yr (+$149/mo · 32.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,516
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,372
• − Management: −$2,372
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$16,917
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,060
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+77.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $399,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $399,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $410,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $410,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $430,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $449,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-05-13 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2014-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-11-06 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2014-10-07 Listed $225,000 Unlock MLS
• 2005-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,516 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.