312 E O'neil Dr #103 · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 126 Days on market

Built 2024 5,040 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price just reduced to $149,000! Don't miss this incredible deal! With vinyl flooring throughout the main areas and cozy carpet in the bedrooms, this home is both stylish and practical. The large center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep, entertaining, or setting up a holiday buffet, while the generous dining area easily fits a formal dining set. Sitting against a block wall, this lot is ideal for pets or privacy - just add side fencing for a fully enclosed yard. Want extra living space? Screen in the covered back patio for a relaxing Arizona Room! The extra-long 18' driveway and spacious carport offer plenty of room for parking plus a golf cart. Make an offer by March 15th to lock in FREE space rent until January 2026!

Key facts

• Large center island
• Oversized carport
• Extra long driveway

Tags

• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• EXTRA LONG DRIVEWAY
• OVERSIZED CARPORT
• BLOCK WALL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $450 monthly; No association fees included; Community pool; Community spa (heated); Pickleball courts; Community laundry; Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold property
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition (asphalt) roof
• Exterior features: Sprinklers front and rear with automatic timers; Gravel/stone front and back; Partial block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (electric); Central air; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanities; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Kitchen island; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Laminate counters; Dual pane windows; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $705 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 4.1% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.84%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $92,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 E O'neil Dr #103	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	1mo	$140,000	$104	99
120 W O'neil Dr #84	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (+1%)	7mo	$70,000	$52	77
312 E O'neil Dr #156	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-6%)	11mo	$183,000	$145	75
450 W Sunwest Dr #68	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+2%)	4mo	$80,000	$59	63
450 W Sunwest Dr #114	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-1%)	6mo	$59,000	$44	61
450 W Sunwest Dr #17	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	11mo	$92,500	$69	60
426 W Cottonwood Ln #94	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (-5%)	3mo	$32,000	$25	57
312 E O'neil Dr #115	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,166 (-13%)	5mo	$160,000	$137	46
450 W Sunwest Dr #183	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-8%)	10mo	$80,000	$65	41
312 E O'neil Dr #113	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,166 (-13%)	11mo	$179,000	$154	41
450 W Sunwest Dr #139	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	6mo	$75,000	$65	40
450 W Sunwest Dr #278	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (-9%)	12mo	$88,000	$72	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $24,986
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $94,710
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,161 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $705

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $805	-5% $755	+0% $705	+5% $655	+10% $605
Rent	-10% $534	-5% $620	+0% $705	+5% $791	+10% $876
Rate	-1.0pp $778	-0.5pp $742	base $705	+0.5pp $668	+1.0pp $629

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	22d	1	0.27mi
1640 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1577	$3,250	$2.06	24d	1	0.27mi
1640 N Cameron St Unit 1640 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	25d	1	0.27mi
1642 N Cameron St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.5	1577	$3,250	$2.06	25d	1	0.28mi
1641 N Kadota Ave Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	2d	3	0.34mi
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	25d	1	0.40mi
1846 N Princeton Ave Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1786	$1,750	$0.98	5d	1	0.41mi
1564 N Morrison Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	871	$1,318	$1.51	2d	20	0.47mi
1775 N Terrace Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,699	$1.04	15d	1	0.59mi
1620 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1090	$2,640	$2.42	2d	1	0.74mi
1926 N Avenida de Palmas Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,199	$1.08	22d	3	0.76mi
541 W Melrose Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,600	$1.45	25d	1	0.81mi
1153 E Gabrilla Dr Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1689	$1,795	$1.06	20d	1	0.81mi
1161 E O'Neil Dr Casa Grande, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1144	$1,498	$1.31	3d	12	0.84mi
1936 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,723	$1.67	2d	29	0.95mi
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	25d	1	0.96mi
520 W Casa Mirage Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,600	$1.04	5d	1	0.97mi
1010 N Park Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	920	$1,100	$1.20	13d	1	1.02mi
767 W Barrus Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	25d	1	1.03mi
1979 N Vista Ln Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,200	$1.34	25d	1	1.04mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	25d	1	1.09mi
736 W Palo Verde Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,550	$1.96	25d	1	1.10mi
2060 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	670	$1,300	$1.94	25d	4	1.16mi
919 N Gilbert Ave Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,975	$1.21	6d	1	1.18mi
803 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,725	$1.16	5d	1	1.20mi
1131 E Trinity Pl Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.5	1600	$1,650	$1.03	25d	1	1.23mi
1265 E Kingman St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1874	$2,099	$1.12	6d	1	1.26mi
776 W Fairlane Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,200	$2.15	25d	1	1.32mi
928 N Pueblo Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	25d	1	1.35mi
1025 N Menze St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	1.5	1301	$1,695	$1.30	13d	1	1.38mi
845 W Crooked Stick Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,000	$1.25	25d	1	1.39mi
1007 N Menze St Casa Grande, AZ	4.0	2.0	1539	$1,580	$1.03	6d	1	1.41mi
846 N Pueblo Dr #138 Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,700	$1.28	15d	1	1.43mi
504 N Roosevelt Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0	921	$1,350	$1.47	18d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
3. 2026-03-11
   price $145,000
4. 2026-02-06
   price $150,000
5. 2026-01-08
   listed $160,000 Active
6. 2025-05-22
   soldstatus $145,000 Closed 740-char remark

   Show marketing remark (740 chars)

   Price just reduced to $149,000! Don't miss this incredible deal! With vinyl flooring throughout the main areas and cozy carpet in the bedrooms, this home is both stylish and practical. The large center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep, entertaining, or setting up a holiday buffet, while the generous dining area easily fits a formal dining set. Sitting against a block wall, this lot is ideal for pets or privacy - just add side fencing for a fully enclosed yard. Want extra living space? Screen in the covered back patio for a relaxing Arizona Room! The extra-long 18' driveway and spacious carport offer plenty of room for parking plus a golf cart. Make an offer by March 15th to lock in FREE space rent until January 2026!

7. 2025-04-16
   status Pending 740-char remark

   Show marketing remark (740 chars)

   Price just reduced to $149,000! Don't miss this incredible deal! With vinyl flooring throughout the main areas and cozy carpet in the bedrooms, this home is both stylish and practical. The large center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep, entertaining, or setting up a holiday buffet, while the generous dining area easily fits a formal dining set. Sitting against a block wall, this lot is ideal for pets or privacy - just add side fencing for a fully enclosed yard. Want extra living space? Screen in the covered back patio for a relaxing Arizona Room! The extra-long 18' driveway and spacious carport offer plenty of room for parking plus a golf cart. Make an offer by March 15th to lock in FREE space rent until January 2026!

8. 2025-03-06
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 740-char remark

   Show marketing remark (740 chars)

   Price just reduced to $149,000! Don't miss this incredible deal! With vinyl flooring throughout the main areas and cozy carpet in the bedrooms, this home is both stylish and practical. The large center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep, entertaining, or setting up a holiday buffet, while the generous dining area easily fits a formal dining set. Sitting against a block wall, this lot is ideal for pets or privacy - just add side fencing for a fully enclosed yard. Want extra living space? Screen in the covered back patio for a relaxing Arizona Room! The extra-long 18' driveway and spacious carport offer plenty of room for parking plus a golf cart. Make an offer by March 15th to lock in FREE space rent until January 2026!

9. 2025-02-19
   listed $149,000 Active 740-char remark

   Show marketing remark (740 chars)

   Price just reduced to $149,000! Don't miss this incredible deal! With vinyl flooring throughout the main areas and cozy carpet in the bedrooms, this home is both stylish and practical. The large center island in the kitchen is perfect for meal prep, entertaining, or setting up a holiday buffet, while the generous dining area easily fits a formal dining set. Sitting against a block wall, this lot is ideal for pets or privacy - just add side fencing for a fully enclosed yard. Want extra living space? Screen in the covered back patio for a relaxing Arizona Room! The extra-long 18' driveway and spacious carport offer plenty of room for parking plus a golf cart. Make an offer by March 15th to lock in FREE space rent until January 2026!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,075
• − Management: −$2,075
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $6,543
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,570
• After-tax cash flow: $6,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $145,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $150,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $160,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Sold (MLS) $145,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Listed $149,000 ARMLS