Sheffield Plan · Manvel, TX 77578

$412,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,370 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sheffield is a light-filled, two-story home designed with openness and privacy in mind. A dramatic two-story foyer welcomes natural light and offers an overlook from the second floor. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows, flowing seamlessly into the spacious kitchen and breakfast area. A private mud room entry connects the 2-car garage to the kitchen, while a centrally located study adds flexibility. The primary suite includes a window seat and luxury bath. Upstairs, a loft connects the secondary bedrooms for functional, flexible living.

Key facts

• Luxury bath
• Window seat
• Private mud room

Tags

• TWO STORY FOYER
• GREAT ROOM
• PRIVATE MUD ROOM
• CENTRALLY LOCATED STUDY
• WINDOW SEAT
• LUXURY BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $412,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $499,369.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $413k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.2% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1243 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $295,925 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.55%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $499,369
• List price: $412,990
• Delta: -17.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9606 Wilder Rd	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,373 (+0%)	1mo	$415,000	$175	90
9502 Turnstone Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,493 (+5%)	1mo	$464,900	$186	69
5722 Caracara St	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,504 (+6%)	0mo	$444,900	$178	65
10215 Botticelli Path	0.18mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,617 (+10%)	1mo	$398,953	$152	64
5030 Morrison Dr	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,085 (-12%)	2mo	$389,990	$187	64
5310 Murillo Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,360 (-0%)	1mo	$395,000	$167	62
5306 Murillo Dr	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,455 (+4%)	2mo	$415,000	$169	54
5247 Palo Verde Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,046 (-14%)	2mo	$345,990	$169	48
5219 Getty Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,129 (-10%)	1mo	$379,000	$178	46
5810 Silver Perch Ln	0.66mi	4/4.5	2,593 (+9%)	1mo	$529,976	$204	43
4703 Franklin Way	0.65mi	4/4.0	2,633 (+11%)	1mo	$424,950	$161	42
5610 Mona Lisa Ct	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,619 (+10%)	1mo	$474,999	$181	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-152,459
• Equity at exit: $74,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-226,665
• Equity at exit: $43,176

Cash invested: $139,823 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77578

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1243
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,959 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,619
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$624 /mo · $7,491/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $-1,113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,368

Max offer price $338,284

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,842
• Closing costs: $14,981
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	24d	1	0.36mi
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	3d	1	0.43mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	44d	1	1.41mi
4143 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $412,990 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $412,990 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $412,990 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $412,990 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $412,990 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $412,990 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $412,990 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $412,990 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $412,990 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $412,990 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $412,990 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $412,990 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $412,990 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $392,990 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $392,990 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $392,990 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    The Sheffield is a light-filled, two-story home designed with openness and privacy in mind. A dramatic two-story foyer welcomes natural light and offers an overlook from the second floor. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows, flowing seamlessly into the spacious kitchen and breakfast area. A private mud room entry connects the 2-car garage to the kitchen, while a centrally located study adds flexibility. The primary suite includes a window seat and luxury bath. Upstairs, a loft connects the secondary bedrooms for functional, flexible living.

17. 2026-03-27
    listed $382,990 Active 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    The Sheffield is a light-filled, two-story home designed with openness and privacy in mind. A dramatic two-story foyer welcomes natural light and offers an overlook from the second floor. The great room features 11-foot ceilings and tall windows, flowing seamlessly into the spacious kitchen and breakfast area. A private mud room entry connects the 2-car garage to the kitchen, while a centrally located study adds flexibility. The primary suite includes a window seat and luxury bath. Upstairs, a loft connects the secondary bedrooms for functional, flexible living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,972
• − Property taxes: −$7,491
• − Insurance: −$2,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,841
• − Management: −$2,841
• − Depreciation: −$14,527
• Taxable loss: −$22,658
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,438
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,210
• Household income: $134,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 93.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Norwegian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
• Current HPI: 218.4264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $392,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Listed $382,990 Zillow