411 Wilson St · Erie, PA 16507

$34,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 969 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1887 6,621 sqft lot $36/sqft · 41% below area Est $60k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special! Property is being sold as-is, where-is. Ideal opportunity for investors or rehabbers looking to add value. Needs repairs and updates throughout but offers strong potential. CASH ONLY. Seller will make no repairs. Buyer responsible for all due diligence, including verifying utilities, square footage, and zoning. Proof of funds required with offer.

Key facts

• 6,621 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1887

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($957 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.2% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 39 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($33k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($241 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $35k implies a 203% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $30,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.96%
• DSCR: 3.53
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,508
• List price: $34,900
• Delta: -41.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
619 Schaaf Pl	0.55mi	2/1.0	960 (-1%)	2mo	$35,000	$36	72
922 E 9th St	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,021 (+5%)	10mo	$85,000	$83	66
521 E 8th St	0.49mi	2/1.0	968 (-0%)	15mo	$37,500	$39	65
738 E 9th St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	984 (+2%)	15mo	$41,500	$42	63
918 E 10th St	0.43mi	2/1.0	924 (-5%)	13mo	$102,500	$111	61
1114 Brewster St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	997 (+3%)	4mo	$66,000	$66	59
313 East Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+14%)	9mo	$163,000	$148	54
614 East 8th St	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,066 (+10%)	13mo	$60,000	$56	54
647 E 12th St	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,024 (+6%)	11mo	$42,000	$41	52
613 Payne Ave	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+7%)	2mo	$95,000	$91	51
618 Brandes St	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+9%)	13mo	$105,000	$99	47
351 E 3rd St	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,058 (+9%)	11mo	$93,500	$88	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $33,288
• Equity at exit: $18,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.30×
• Total profit: $71,366
• Equity at exit: $29,789

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16507

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,132/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $369

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
519 E 6th St Unit 3 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$775	$0.86	43d	1	0.41mi
1404 E Lake Rd Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	43d	1	0.68mi
612 E 14th St #1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	775	$850	$1.10	43d	1	0.74mi
407 E 13th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	43d	1	0.84mi
100 Erie Insurance Pl Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,425	$1.27	43d	1	0.96mi
16 W 5th St Apt 504 Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1072	$2,499	$2.33	43d	1	1.08mi
626 E 23rd St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	850	$800	$0.94	43d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $34,900 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,900 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,900 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,900 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,900 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $34,900 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,900 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $34,900 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,900 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $34,900 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $34,900 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $34,900 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $34,900 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,900 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,900 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,900 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $34,900 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-02-08
    listed $34,900 Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    Investor special! Property is being sold as-is, where-is. Ideal opportunity for investors or rehabbers looking to add value. Needs repairs and updates throughout but offers strong potential. CASH ONLY. Seller will make no repairs. Buyer responsible for all due diligence, including verifying utilities, square footage, and zoning. Proof of funds required with offer.

19. 1976-10-01
    soldstatus $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$1,132
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$918
• − Management: −$918
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $5,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,288
• After-tax cash flow: $4,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,597
• Household income: $33,361
• Rent vs Own: 66.2% rent · 33.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 24% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 163.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+203.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-08 Listed $34,900 GEBOR
• 1976-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,132 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.