25565 Rose Creek Dr · Cleveland, TX 77328

$211,840

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,891 sqft · Land · 7 Days on market

Built 2026 $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Littleton Floor Plan - On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LAYOUT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pinewood Trail Homeowner association; Annual association fee of $372

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding and stucco exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 15); Multiple secondary bedrooms on the second floor (10 x 11; 10 x 10; 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room open to each other; Kitchen and dining area combined; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $211,840 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $257,293.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $212k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenleaf El (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 797 students, 70% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $186,562 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.58%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,293
• List price: $211,840
• Delta: -17.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-47,817
• Equity at exit: $38,363

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-49,805
• Equity at exit: $22,246

Cash invested: $72,042 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77328

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,866 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,349
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $971/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,985

Max offer price $240,584

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,323
• Closing costs: $7,719
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25402 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,595	$1.02	24d	1	0.07mi
25397 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,700	$1.20	1d	1	0.09mi
25382 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	1d	1	0.12mi
10519 Copper Ridge Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,625	$1.15	4d	1	0.14mi
25365 Cypress Bend Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	43d	1	0.17mi
25432 Birch Hill Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	19d	1	0.17mi
10475 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,595	$1.02	2d	1	0.18mi
10487 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	22d	1	0.19mi
25419 Birch Hill Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,099	$1.26	2d	1	0.20mi
10490 Red Cardinal Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	24d	1	0.22mi
10659 Lost Maples Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	22d	1	0.23mi
10405 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	1d	1	0.24mi
10457 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	24d	1	0.25mi
10414 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	43d	1	0.27mi
10410 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.5	2171	$1,695	$0.78	24d	1	0.27mi
10454 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	5d	1	0.27mi
10458 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,595	$1.02	20d	1	0.28mi
10462 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	24d	1	0.28mi
10474 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	24d	1	0.29mi
10478 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	24d	1	0.29mi
25507 Greenwood Canyon Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1950	$2,320	$1.19	1d	1	0.29mi
10506 Sweetwater Creek Dr Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,545	$1.09	24d	1	0.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $211,840 Active 619-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $211,840 Active 430-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $971 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,877 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,905/yr (+$242/mo · 299.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,412
• − Property taxes: −$971
• − Insurance: −$1,286
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$7,485
• Taxable loss: −$5,722
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,373
• After-tax cash flow: $238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: San Jacinto County · 17,208 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,208
• Household income: $62,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 58.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.82%
• Current HPI: 273.6604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $211,840 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $971 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.