11040 Chippewa Way · Gonzalez, FL 32534

$235,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2007 6,098 sqft lot Est $267k · 12% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 3 bdrm/ 2 full bath home. Has wood laminate floors in the all rooms other than the 2 baths. Bathrooms feature new vinyl tile. Master bathroom has huge walk in closet. Home has a large eat in kitchen with a nearly 13 ft bar. The Jewel has been been very well cared for. The seller has taken a lot pride in the property, adding a drainage system to prevent any flooding, (is not in a flood zone). The privacy fenced backyard has a 5ft deep salt water above ground pool with a deck for access and saftey. The seller is also adding more cosmetic features to really make this pool and home a real stand out. ***A must see***

Key facts

• Water heater
• En-suite bath
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• REPLACED DURAPEX PLUMBING
• WATER HEATER
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATH
• OVERSIZED EAT-IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County-maintained road access
• HOA & community: HOA present with an annual fee of $187; HOA covers association, deed restrictions, grounds maintenance, and management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage (1 covered parking space, total 1 parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breakers with copper wiring; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to other properties; Frame construction
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Frame construction; Approximately 1,208 square feet
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Backyard fencing; Central access and interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Self-cleaning oven; Kitchen updated within last year; new flooring scheduled May 2026; Breakfast bar / kitchen-dining combo
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11.5' x 13.5'); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11.25' x 12.4'); Third bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10.33' x 10.5')
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Baseboards; Blinds; Vinyl, carpet, and laminate flooring; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($34/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: L. D. Mcarthur Elementary School (math 44% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 593 students, 65% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $235k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,142 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,968
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Leebeck Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,186 (-2%)	6mo	$214,900	$181	77
1390 Tara Dawn Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,285 (+6%)	3mo	$210,000	$163	76
10650 Senegal Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+8%)	4mo	$232,000	$177	70
10613 Senegal Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+10%)	5mo	$212,000	$160	70
3334 Bliss Ln Unit 11A	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+9%)	2mo	$297,525	$226	55
3335 Bliss Ln Unit 10E	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+9%)	2mo	$299,337	$227	54
3370 Bliss Ln Unit 2A	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+9%)	1mo	$291,665	$221	54
3343 Bliss Ln Unit 8E	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+9%)	2mo	$295,000	$224	54
3355 Bliss Ln Unit 5E	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+9%)	1mo	$301,225	$229	53
3342 Bliss Ln Unit 9A	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+9%)	5mo	$290,900	$221	52
2049 N Roberts Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	3mo	$209,000	$196	45
515 Evening Falls Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+11%)	4mo	$240,000	$179	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-36,805
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-27,255
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32534

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,268/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $69	+0% $3	+5% $-64	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-143	-5% $-70	+0% $3	+5% $76	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $121	-0.5pp $63	base $3	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10493 River Birch Dr Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,525	$1.45	25d	1	0.15mi
217 Cohasset Ct Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1391	$1,875	$1.35	15d	1	0.16mi
3310 Bliss Ln Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,100	$1.41	15d	1	0.52mi
9980 Bowman Ave Unit N Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,595	$1.39	23d	1	1.29mi
9980 Bowman Ave Unit L Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,595	$1.39	15d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 693-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $235,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,268 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,950 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$683/yr (+$57/mo · 53.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,268
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$978
• After-tax cash flow: $1,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gonzalez, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,104
• Household income: $58,992
• Rent vs Own: 44.8% rent · 55.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 540.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 30% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 255.7617
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.63%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+298.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $235,000 PARMLS
• 2015-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-10 Sold (MLS) $98,000 PARMLS
• 2014-10-10 Listed $98,000 PARMLS
• 2011-12-30 Sold (MLS) $54,000 PARMLS
• 2011-11-27 Listed $59,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,268 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.