None · Elfers, FL 34652

$179,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1966 6,000 sqft lot Est $277k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Great opportunity for a rehab loan, fix/flip or investment. Single family pool home located in New Port Richy. Conveniently located close to St. Rd. 54 (Under 1 mile), and U. S. 19 (under 2 miles) Roof, A/C and duct work done in 2018. Needs repair work/updating interior. repair work needed for pool and outside of home as well.

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• Pool
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.14 acres (about 557 sq meters); Private fiberglass pool
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Homestead exemption indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces south; Fixer condition
• Construction: Block and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Terrazzo; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.7% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anclote Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 420 students, 81% FRL); Gulf High School (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,465 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 48% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 644 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.48%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $276,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4533 Belfast Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-5%)	3mo	$250,000	$186	69
5109 Tilson Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+7%)	1mo	$190,999	$126	68
5209 Beacon Hill Dr	0.40mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,387 (-2%)	4mo	$215,000	$155	68
5025 State Road 54	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,277 (-10%)	1mo	$288,000	$226	62
3651 Colonial Hills Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (+1%)	3mo	$320,000	$224	61
4173 Highland Loop	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-14%)	4mo	$243,400	$200	59
5245 Kapok Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,361 (-4%)	1mo	$265,000	$195	59
4556 Edith St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+3%)	1mo	$170,000	$116	58
4603 Stonehaven Pl	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,378 (-3%)	1mo	$256,000	$186	55
5612 Mallow St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+1%)	3mo	$330,000	$229	53
4711 Beacon Hill Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-14%)	1mo	$270,000	$221	45
4609 Irene Loop	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,582 (+11%)	4mo	$125,000	$79	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-10,545
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,819
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34652

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $505/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,336

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $455	-5% $405	+0% $354	+5% $303	+10% $253
Rent	-10% $213	-5% $284	+0% $354	+5% $424	+10% $495
Rate	-1.0pp $444	-0.5pp $400	base $354	+0.5pp $308	+1.0pp $260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4117 Highland Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,599	$1.16	13d	1	0.10mi
5319 Drift Tide Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1142	$1,500	$1.31	11d	1	0.17mi
4548 Belfast Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,575	$1.47	19d	1	0.32mi
4554 Nimmer Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,600	$1.36	16d	1	0.34mi
4645 Irene Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,700	$1.47	0d	1	0.44mi
4747 Azalea Dr #208 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,200	$1.06	19d	1	0.52mi
4616 Irene Loop New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	898	$1,600	$1.78	21d	1	0.54mi
4746 Azalea Dr Apt 103C Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,220	$1.21	25d	1	0.56mi
4721 Naftis Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,700	$1.54	13d	1	0.59mi
5720 Salt Kettle Ct New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$900	$0.64	19d	1	0.62mi
4505 Cottonwood Dr New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	3d	1	0.68mi
4939 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,648	$1.57	17d	3	0.69mi
4939 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	25d	2	0.69mi
4939 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	3d	2	0.69mi
4022 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	19d	1	0.72mi
5227 Tangerine Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	996	$1,500	$1.51	13d	1	0.75mi
4031 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	19d	1	0.77mi
4737 Alcea St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,250	$1.77	3d	1	0.77mi
4621 Bowl St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,045	$1.33	6d	1	0.79mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	6d	1	0.79mi
5403 Tangerine Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	962	$1,750	$1.82	0d	1	0.81mi
4221 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	888	$1,300	$1.46	25d	1	0.84mi
4852 Pompano Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,900	$2.63	25d	1	0.86mi
3847 Lighthouse Way New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,595	$1.39	23d	1	0.87mi
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	25d	1	0.89mi
5197 Silent Loop New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$2,200	$2.30	4d	1	0.89mi
5197 Silent Loop #124 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$2,200	$2.30	25d	1	0.89mi
4408 Rustic Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	25d	1	0.90mi
4411 Rustic Dr Unit 1 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	13d	1	0.93mi
4301 Straits Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.5	1284	$1,790	$1.39	25d	1	0.94mi
4211 Hampton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,795	$1.71	6d	1	0.96mi
5945 Mockingbird Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,125	$1.29	16d	1	0.96mi
3252 Peterborough St Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,631	$1.26	6d	1	0.98mi
4754 Marine Pkwy Unit 2 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,750	$1.33	16d	1	0.99mi
4754 Marine Pkwy Unit 102-I New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,500	$1.38	25d	1	0.99mi
5831 1st Ave New Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1548	$2,150	$1.39	19d	1	0.99mi
4282 Rudder Way New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,000	$1.38	25d	1	1.00mi
4282 Rudder Way New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,000	$1.53	4d	1	1.00mi
6041 9th Ave New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,775	$1.16	25d	1	1.00mi
3639 Madison St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,700	$1.30	25d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $505 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$981/yr (+$82/mo · 194.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$505
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $1,349
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$324
• After-tax cash flow: $3,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,444
• Household income: $56,931
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 310.8347
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.72%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $505 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.