5388 Bart Dr · Casco, MI 48064

$59,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $45/sqft · 215% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seeking affordable living within an active, all-age community? Anchor Bay in Casco, Michigan, is your ideal destination. Enjoy convenient access to local recreation, shopping, and entertainment in this picturesque community. Anchor Bay boasts a wealth of amenities, including a swimming pool, clubhouse, two playgrounds, volleyball & basketball court, and fitness center ensuring residents have ample opportunities for recreation and relaxation right at their doorstep.

Key facts

• Volleyball court
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUNDS
• VOLLEYBALL COURT
• BASKETBALL COURT
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $854 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Anchor Bay School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 540 in MI (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $56,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.12%
• DSCR: 3.72
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $19,000
• List price: $59,900
• Delta: 215.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $44,728
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.51×
• Total profit: $109,108
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48064

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $854

Break-even live

Break-even rent $524

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5407 Aloha Ln Casco, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1152	$1,599	$1.39	1d	1	0.07mi
37781 Sandstone Trl New Haven, MI	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,674	$1.03	1d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $59,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $59,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    listed $59,900 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Seeking affordable living within an active, all-age community? Anchor Bay in Casco, Michigan, is your ideal destination. Enjoy convenient access to local recreation, shopping, and entertainment in this picturesque community. Anchor Bay boasts a wealth of amenities, including a swimming pool, clubhouse, two playgrounds, volleyball & basketball court, and fitness center ensuring residents have ample opportunities for recreation and relaxation right at their doorstep.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $9,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,373
• After-tax cash flow: $7,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy the community amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and protects the siding.
• Both Replace carpet in living room — Fresh carpet improves aesthetics and comfort.
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern features.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and protects the siding. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in living room — Fresh carpet improves aesthetics and comfort. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern features. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchor Bay School District
• NCES district ID: 2602790
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,173
• Composite: 43.85/100
• National rank: #2925
• State rank: #91 of 540 in MI

Livability — Casco

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,996

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 11% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.97%
• Current HPI: 232.1357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $59,900 Zillow