415 Grand St · Newburgh, NY 12550

$799,999

8 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,754 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1900 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity. .. . This Victorian style home has many of the original features such as stained glass windows, elaborate woodworking, parkay floors. There are seasonal river views from the rear yard. Also a 2 car heated garage with workshop. Just blocks away from Mount. St. Mary college and the Newburgh Waterfront. Minutes the Newburgh-Beacon Bridge. Priced for a quick sale. Don't wait.

Key facts

• Timeless proportions
• Ornate details
• Strong bones

Tags

• HISTORIC DISTRICT
• ARCHITECTURAL CHARACTER
• 19TH CENTURY CRAFTSMANSHIP
• ORNATE DETAILS
• STRONG BONES
• TIMELESS PROPORTIONS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected (Central Hudson); Natural gas connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Quadruplex; Actual property condition
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two 1-bedroom units; Two 3-bedroom units
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; High-speed internet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $800k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $130/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $780k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $728k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.4% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 384 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,795/mo this rent would consume 109% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 2412% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($728k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $425k; list at $800k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $727,999 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.09%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-122,733
• Equity at exit: $119,282

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-144,925
• Equity at exit: $69,169

Cash invested: $224,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12550

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 25.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,795 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,195
• Tax from tax record: −$1,240 /mo · $14,881/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,637
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,302

Max offer price $799,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $842	-5% $616	+0% $389	+5% $163	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $81	+0% $389	+5% $697	+10% $1,005
Rate	-1.0pp $792	-0.5pp $593	base $389	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $-29

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	—	$7,794
Total (3 units)			$7,795

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $200,000
• Closing costs: $24,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $799,999
3. 2026-03-27
   price $800,000
4. 2026-02-17
   price $850,000
5. 2026-01-06
   listed $895,000 Active
6. 2022-04-01
   soldstatus $425,000
7. 2017-03-06
   soldstatus $220,000
8. 2017-02-25
   soldstatus $220,000 Sold 394-char remark

   Show marketing remark (394 chars)

   Great opportunity. .. . This Victorian style home has many of the original features such as stained glass windows, elaborate woodworking, parkay floors. There are seasonal river views from the rear yard. Also a 2 car heated garage with workshop. Just blocks away from Mount. St. Mary college and the Newburgh Waterfront. Minutes the Newburgh-Beacon Bridge. Priced for a quick sale. Don't wait.

9. 2017-02-25
   price $220,000 394-char remark

   Show marketing remark (394 chars)

   Great opportunity. .. . This Victorian style home has many of the original features such as stained glass windows, elaborate woodworking, parkay floors. There are seasonal river views from the rear yard. Also a 2 car heated garage with workshop. Just blocks away from Mount. St. Mary college and the Newburgh Waterfront. Minutes the Newburgh-Beacon Bridge. Priced for a quick sale. Don't wait.

10. 2017-02-24
    soldstatus $220,000 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Great opportunity.... This Victorian style home has many of the original features such as stained glass windows, elaborate woodworking, parkay floors. There are seasonal river views from the rear yard. Also a 2 car heated garage with workshop. Just blocks away from Mount. St. Mary college and the Newburgh Waterfront. Minutes the Newburgh-Beacon Bridge. Priced for a quick sale. Don't wait. Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

11. 2016-12-30
    historical Pending 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Great opportunity. .. . This Victorian style home has many of the original features such as stained glass windows, elaborate woodworking, parkay floors. There are seasonal river views from the rear yard. Also a 2 car heated garage with workshop. Just blocks away from Mount. St. Mary college and the Newburgh Waterfront. Minutes the Newburgh-Beacon Bridge. Priced for a quick sale. Don't wait.

12. 2016-12-28
    price $249,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Great opportunity. .. . This Victorian style home has many of the original features such as stained glass windows, elaborate woodworking, parkay floors. There are seasonal river views from the rear yard. Also a 2 car heated garage with workshop. Just blocks away from Mount. St. Mary college and the Newburgh Waterfront. Minutes the Newburgh-Beacon Bridge. Priced for a quick sale. Don't wait.

13. 2016-10-01
    listed $249,000 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Great opportunity.... This Victorian style home has many of the original features such as stained glass windows, elaborate woodworking, parkay floors. There are seasonal river views from the rear yard. Also a 2 car heated garage with workshop. Just blocks away from Mount. St. Mary college and the Newburgh Waterfront. Minutes the Newburgh-Beacon Bridge. Priced for a quick sale. Don't wait. Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

14. 2016-10-01
    listed $249,000 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    Great opportunity.... This Victorian style home has many of the original features such as stained glass windows, elaborate woodworking, parkay floors. There are seasonal river views from the rear yard. Also a 2 car heated garage with workshop. Just blocks away from Mount. St. Mary college and the Newburgh Waterfront. Minutes the Newburgh-Beacon Bridge. Priced for a quick sale. Don't wait. Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

15. 2016-08-18
    historical Expired
16. 2016-08-17
    historical
17. 2016-05-11
    price
18. 2016-01-09
    price
19. 2015-08-21
    listed Active
20. 2015-08-20
    listed $319,900
21. 1980-06-01
    soldstatus $34,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,881 · $1,240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,881 · $1,240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $93,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,812
• − Property taxes: −$14,881
• − Insurance: −$4,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,483
• − Management: −$7,483
• − Depreciation: −$23,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,393
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,014
• After-tax cash flow: $6,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #17021

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newburgh, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 55,152
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,152
• Household income: $85,697
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 36% Black 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.93%
• Current HPI: 304.1046
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2218.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $799,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listed $895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-25 Price Changed $220,000 HGMLS
• 2017-02-25 Sold (MLS) $220,000 HGMLS
• 2017-02-24 Sold (MLS) $220,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-30 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2016-12-28 Price Changed $249,000 HGMLS
• 2016-10-01 Listed $249,000 HGMLS
• 2016-10-01 Listed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-18 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2016-08-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-11 Price Changed — HGMLS
• 2016-01-09 Price Changed — HGMLS
• 2015-08-21 Listed — HGMLS
• 2015-08-20 Listed $319,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1980-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,881 · -7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.