12431 9th St · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1998 0.27 ac lot $212/sqft · 11% above area Est $247k · 11% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO HOA or Additional MUD taxes. Move in ready. AC replaced in July 2025, less than a year old. Charming custom built home in the heart of Santa Fe. Convenient to Hwy 6 and Hwy 646. Efficient compact floorplan on a oversized lot, with double side gates, nice sized covered back porch and large workshop/ shed within the large fenced back yard.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Large workshop
• Oversized lot

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT HOME
• OVERSIZED LOT
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• FENCED BACK YARD
• NO HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38k ($455k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($51k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $258k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 171.8% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,499 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 18.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 171.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 591.03%
• DSCR: 27.30
• GRM: 0.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,944
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: 11.36%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12423 A Bar Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,443 (+11%)	2mo	$269,000	$186	76
4406 B Bar Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,435 (+10%)	1mo	$250,000	$174	67
4234 Chisholm Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-3%)	10mo	$250,000	$198	62
4032 Avenue O	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-5%)	16mo	$210,000	$170	59
4028 Avenue O	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (+14%)	0mo	$225,000	$152	52
11826 Old Spanish Trl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+6%)	10mo	$269,999	$197	52
11806 Oregon Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+11%)	2mo	$299,900	$207	47
11915 12th St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,198 (-8%)	14mo	$239,900	$200	47
5203 Avenue L	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-4%)	16mo	$249,000	$199	46
11743 Santa Fe Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+4%)	15mo	$259,500	$191	46
11905 15th St	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (+5%)	10mo	$200,000	$146	43
11911 Santa Fe Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+12%)	14mo	$265,000	$182	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 31.80×
• Total profit: $2,371,693
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 68.26×
• Total profit: $5,178,837
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 0.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $50,543 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$448 /mo · $5,371/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,614
• Net cashflow: $37,924

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,537

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 20%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38,080	-5% $38,002	+0% $37,924	+5% $37,847	+10% $37,769
Rent	-10% $33,932	-5% $35,928	+0% $37,924	+5% $39,921	+10% $41,917
Rate	-1.0pp $38,063	-0.5pp $37,994	base $37,924	+0.5pp $37,853	+1.0pp $37,781

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	44d	1	0.39mi
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	23d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Pending 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Pending 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Pending 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Pending 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $275,000 Pending 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $275,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $275,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-04-14
    price $275,000 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    NO HOA or Additional MUD taxes. Move in ready. AC replaced in July 2025, less than a year old. Charming custom built home in the heart of Santa Fe. Convenient to Hwy 6 and Hwy 646. Efficient compact floorplan on a oversized lot, with double side gates, nice sized covered back porch and large workshop/ shed within the large fenced back yard.

14. 2026-03-22
    listed $279,000 Active 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    NO HOA or Additional MUD taxes. Move in ready. AC replaced in July 2025, less than a year old. Charming custom built home in the heart of Santa Fe. Convenient to Hwy 6 and Hwy 646. Efficient compact floorplan on a oversized lot, with double side gates, nice sized covered back porch and large workshop/ shed within the large fenced back yard.

15. 2022-02-11
    soldstatus
16. 2015-02-27
    soldstatus 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Come on home to this 3/2/2 custom home with lavish landscaping. This one use to be the model home and has many extras and more recent updates. All space is well used and its a gorgeous spilt plan with , wood floors, covered back porch, real oak cabinets, City services, big fenced backyard, RV pad with electric/water hookup up through side double gate and much much more

17. 2015-02-27
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Come on home to this 3/2/2 custom home with lavish landscaping. This one use to be the model home and has many extras and more recent updates. All space is well used and its a gorgeous spilt plan with , wood floors, covered back porch, real oak cabinets, City services, big fenced backyard, RV pad with electric/water hookup up through side double gate and much much more

18. 2015-01-24
    historical 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Come on home to this 3/2/2 custom home with lavish landscaping. This one use to be the model home and has many extras and more recent updates. All space is well used and its a gorgeous spilt plan with , wood floors, covered back porch, real oak cabinets, City services, big fenced backyard, RV pad with electric/water hookup up through side double gate and much much more

19. 2015-01-09
    listed $149,900 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Come on home to this 3/2/2 custom home with lavish landscaping. This one use to be the model home and has many extras and more recent updates. All space is well used and its a gorgeous spilt plan with , wood floors, covered back porch, real oak cabinets, City services, big fenced backyard, RV pad with electric/water hookup up through side double gate and much much more

20. 2003-08-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,371 · $448/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,371 · $448/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $606,513
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,371
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$48,521
• − Management: −$48,521
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $479,320
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$115,037
• After-tax cash flow: $340,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+83.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-02-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-01-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-01-09 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2003-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,371 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.