34034 Estates Ln · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$65,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 828 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1993 4,088 sqft lot Est $110k · 41% under $217/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. PRICED TO SELL!! Perfect opportunity for investors or owner-occupants seeking immediate equity. Currently the lowest-priced property in the community. Brand-new water heater and property is in rent-ready condition with immediate income potential. Current month-to-month tenant may remain in place for investors seeking instant cash flow. Located in a non-age-restricted, low HOA, golf cart-friendly community offering a relaxed Florida lifestyle. Residents enjoy access to two resort-style pools, hot tub, private fishing pier, and an active clubhouse with library and billiards room.

Key facts

• Resort style pools
• Active clubhouse
• Private fishing pier

Tags

• RENT READY CONDITION
• GOLF CART FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• RESORT STYLE POOLS
• PRIVATE FISHING PIER
• ACTIVE CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees $2,604
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Qualified Property Management; Monthly association fee $217 (required); Association amenities: clubhouse, gated community, pool; Association fee includes: pool, grounds maintenance, recreational facilities, security, sewer, trash, water; Association approval required; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.09-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $65,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$110,124) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 650 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.36%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,124
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34632 Sweetpea Ln	0.68mi	2/1.0	816 (-1%)	6mo	$70,000	$86	57
34630 Petunia Pl	0.66mi	2/2.0	864 (+4%)	10mo	$115,000	$133	54
34552 Rosebud Row	0.69mi	2/2.0	864 (+4%)	19mo	$118,000	$137	45
34704 Morning Glory Gln	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	888 (+7%)	6mo	$60,000	$68	43
34125 Chancey Rd	0.53mi	2/1.0	720 (-13%)	12mo	$435,000	$604	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $16,441
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $38,046
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 650
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,551/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $904

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $528	-5% $509	+0% $491	+5% $472	+10% $454
Rent	-10% $370	-5% $431	+0% $491	+5% $551	+10% $611
Rate	-1.0pp $524	-0.5pp $507	base $491	+0.5pp $474	+1.0pp $457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	16d	1	0.22mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	25d	1	0.87mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$1,956	$1.85	0d	13	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 624-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $65,000 Pending 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $65,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $79,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $84,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $89,000 Active
17. 2024-09-25
    soldstatus $65,000
18. 1997-06-05
    soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,551 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,551 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,551
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,464
• − Management: −$1,464
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $5,363
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,287
• After-tax cash flow: $4,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+147.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,551 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.