12629 County Road 1054 · Wylie, TX 75442

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Land public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2019 9,060 sqft lot $138/sqft · 6% below area Est $211k · 6% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the charm of country living with modern farmhouse style in this move-in ready home located in Farmersville. Built in 2019, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide manufactured home offers 1,440 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on a . 20-acre lot. Step inside to an inviting open-concept layout featuring stylish finishes, a decorative barn door, farmhouse kitchen sink, and plenty of room for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with a garden tub, double vanity, and ample storage. Outside, enjoy the freedom of your own outdoor space with room to garden, entertain, or create the backyard you've always wan

Key facts

• Decorative barn door
• Outdoor space
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• MODERN FARMHOUSE STYLE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• DECORATIVE BARN DOOR
• FARMHOUSE KITCHEN SINK
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• ROOM TO GARDEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is standalone (not attached); Parcel: R0778000379A1; County: Collin; Country: United States; Geocode confidence: High
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Outside parking
• Utilities: City water; Septic; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); One level; Preowned (built 2019)
• Construction: Siding exterior; Built in 2019
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre; Subdivision: Lavon Beach Estates; Directions: Please use GPS

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (level 1) — 13 x 12; Bedroom (level 1) — 11 x 10; Bedroom (level 1) — 11 x 11
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; Total rooms: 4
• Laundry & utility: Utility room; Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $149 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Farmersville ISD (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #298 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tatum El (519 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 42% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 415 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,667 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.21%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,938
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -5.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-22,733
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,496
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75442

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 415
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,907 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,768/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $199,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-04-21
   price $199,000 464-char remark
9. 2026-04-10
   listed $234,900 Active 464-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,768 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$874/yr (+$73/mo · 31.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,768
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,830
• − Management: −$1,830
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$355
• After-tax cash flow: $2,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmersville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819080
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,626
• Composite: 37.17/100
• National rank: #4479
• State rank: #298 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,805
• Household income: $95,250
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 105.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.67%
• Current HPI: 304.6738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $234,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,768 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.