272 Northgate Dr · Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1972 38 ac lot Est $158k · 43% under $326/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Double wide home with 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. HVAC replaced 2024, Roof over 2019, wood kitchen cabinets with tile countertops. North facing windows are double pane fixed in place. Front Enclosed Florida room is cooled, not heated. Vinyl flooring in living/dining rooms/bedrooms. Walk in shower in Master Bath. Tub in guest bath. W & D hook-ups in shed. Large carport. All exterior walls have new wood framing. Most interior walls are drywall. Kitchen and Bathroom cabinets are custom made from wood. Needs some TLC as reflected in the price. The share for the park is $40,000 and is included in the list price. Amenities include: Sparkling Sw

Key facts

• Hvac replaced
• Tile countertops
• Roof over

Tags

• HVAC REPLACED
• ROOF OVER
• WOOD KITCHEN CABINETS
• TILE COUNTERTOPS
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $507 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.3% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $90k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.14%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,872
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
219 Seagull Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-0%)	8mo	$130,000	$129	90
271 Northgate Dr	0.01mi	2/2.0	936 (-8%)	13mo	$146,000	$156	76
237 Harmony Way	0.18mi	2/2.0	989 (-2%)	18mo	$160,000	$162	73
39820 US Highway 19 N #9	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+9%)	11mo	$145,000	$131	57
116 Rachel Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	866 (-14%)	19mo	$160,000	$185	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $12,539
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $32,567
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34689

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$326
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,200

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $569	-5% $538	+0% $507	+5% $476	+10% $445
Rent	-10% $362	-5% $434	+0% $507	+5% $580	+10% $653
Rate	-1.0pp $552	-0.5pp $530	base $507	+0.5pp $484	+1.0pp $460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
673 Haven Pl #673 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,450	$1.51	15d	1	0.10mi
501 Saint Michaels Way Unit 520 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	25d	1	0.12mi
640 Haven Pl #640 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,595	$1.66	8d	1	0.13mi
605 S Disston Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	1290	$2,120	$1.64	22d	1	0.26mi
524 E Lime St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,600	$2.06	25d	1	0.38mi
650 E Tarpon Ave Unit C1 Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	8d	1	0.45mi
1113 E Lime St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	4d	1	0.48mi
39650 US Highway 19 N #141 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,550	$1.63	5d	1	0.52mi
401 E Boyer St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,099	$1.86	2d	1	0.58mi
401 E Boyer St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,299	$2.03	25d	1	0.58mi
401 E Boyer St Unit 3 Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,099	$1.86	25d	1	0.58mi
326 S Grosse Ave Apt 2 Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,098	$1.86	25d	1	0.59mi
320 S Grosse Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,749	$1.87	25d	1	0.59mi
316 E Boyer St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,749	$1.87	25d	1	0.62mi
825 Cypress St Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,723	$2.30	3d	6	0.70mi
1185 S Pinellas Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,154	$2.12	2d	21	0.84mi
610 N Walton Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,045	$1.60	25d	1	0.87mi
707 E Spruce St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	967	$1,700	$1.76	11d	1	0.89mi
103 E Park St Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	999	$3,000	$3.00	25d	1	0.95mi
90 S Highland Ave #101 Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,795	$1.59	25d	1	0.95mi
329 Moorings Cove Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,700	$1.67	21d	1	1.00mi
105 S Spring Blvd Unit 10 Tarpon Springs, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	25d	1	1.16mi
816 Elkan Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,900	$1.61	4d	1	1.21mi
817 Margo St Tarpon Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$1,600	$2.02	25d	1	1.23mi
1990 Carolina Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	22d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $326 · $3,912/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $90,000 Active
3. 1991-09-01
   soldstatus $24,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − HOA: −$3,912
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $5,193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,246
• After-tax cash flow: $4,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tarpon Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #9244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tarpon Springs, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 27,324
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,324
• Household income: $74,854
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.96%
• Current HPI: 303.7434
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+270.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,300 Public Records

Property tax history

-17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $57 · +33.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.