1048 Kunkle Dr · Chambersburg, PA 17202

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,907 sqft · Other · 82 Days on market

Built 1990 0.27 ac lot $113/sqft · 42% below area Est $369k · 42% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($239/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Chambersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#530 in PA, #4,894 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime D, employment D.
• Chambersburg Area SD (other): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #383 of 539 in PA (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 633 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (112 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,779 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,169
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -41.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-33,491
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-27,206
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17202

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$349 /mo · $4,190/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,983

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
902 Setting Sun Ln Chambersburg, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,050	$1.26	44d	1	0.35mi
804 Rising Sun Ln Chambersburg, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,050	$1.26	44d	1	0.35mi
801 Rising Sun Ln Chambersburg, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$1,950	$1.20	44d	1	0.37mi
824 Rising Sun Ln Chambersburg, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,050	$1.26	44d	1	0.37mi
825 Rising Sun Ln Chambersburg, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$1,950	$1.20	44d	1	0.39mi
829 Rising Sun Ln Chambersburg, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$1,950	$1.20	44d	1	0.39mi
871 Rising Sun Ln Chambersburg, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$1,950	$1.20	44d	1	0.42mi
330 Parkwood Dr Chambersburg, PA	2.0	2.0	1841	$2,300	$1.25	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $215,000 Pending 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   status $215,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-04-29
   price $266,500
5. 2026-03-10
   listed $296,000 Active
6. 2026-03-10
   historical $296,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,190 · $349/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,190 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$4,190
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$798
• After-tax cash flow: $1,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chambersburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4205550
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $52,666
• Composite: 32.17/100
• National rank: #5787
• State rank: #383 of 539 in PA

Livability — Chambersburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #530
• US rank: #4894

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 27,554
• Population (ZIP): 32,772

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,827 people
• By 2030: 158,933 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 159,060 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 155,132 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 138,545 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 112,321 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 28.1% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.6pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+46.5 2012: R+38.5 2008: R+32.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.86%
• Current HPI: 232.0695
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $266,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $296,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-10 Coming Soon $296,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,190 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.