3301 S Goldfield Rd #4079 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$221,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,762 sqft · Manufactured · 168 Days on market

Built 2007 ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new roof 20026 & newer A/C (2023) offer peace of mind from the start in this spacious & beautifully maintained 2-bedroom + den, 2-bath home w/ 1,762 sq ft of comfortable living. The home features a bright, open floor plan w/ vaulted ceilings & wood-look flooring throughout, creating a warm & welcoming atmosphere the moment you walk in. The large living room & separate family room provide plenty of space to relax & entertain. The kitchen offers great functionality and includes the refrigerator. Skylights T/O fill the home with natural light all day long. The split floor plan includes a spacious primary suite w/ a walk-in closet, garden tub, & wa

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size and building area reported by owner
• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment required
• HOA & community: Land lease community (monthly land lease fee applies); Association maintains grounds; No visible trucks/trailers/RVs/boats allowed; Community amenities include pool, community spa (heated), pickleball courts, tennis courts, fitness center, biking/walking paths, and community media room

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2; 2-car garage with garage door opener and attached garage cabinets
• Security: Gated community with guarded entry; Security guard on site
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Steel frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private street access; Screened-in patio; Exterior storage; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Has heating
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in main bath; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Full bath in primary bedroom; Separate shower and tub; Skylights; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($260/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,722
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3301 S Goldfield Rd #4018	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,776 (+1%)	2mo	$227,500	$128	91
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2015	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,795 (+2%)	1mo	$145,000	$81	91
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2102	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,720 (-2%)	1mo	$120,000	$70	88
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2095	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,632 (-7%)	2mo	$129,900	$80	86
3301 S Goldfield Rd #2056	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,680 (-5%)	2mo	$177,500	$106	86
3301 S Goldfield Rd #4028	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,890 (+7%)	1mo	$157,500	$83	84
3301 S Goldfield Rd #1054	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,586 (-10%)	1mo	$165,000	$104	83
3301 S Goldfield Rd #3038	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,915 (+9%)	1mo	$171,000	$89	79
3301 S Goldfield Rd #1015	0.11mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,874 (+6%)	2mo	$140,000	$75	74
2400 E Baseline Ave #44	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,568 (-11%)	2mo	$115,000	$73	55
3355 S Cortez Rd #28	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-14%)	0mo	$77,000	$51	50
2400 E Baseline Ave #163	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-14%)	2mo	$80,000	$53	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-37,269
• Equity at exit: $33,026

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-41,669
• Equity at exit: $19,151

Cash invested: $62,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,162
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$277 /mo · $3,322/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,938

Max offer price $221,500

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $98	+0% $22	+5% $-55	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-56	+0% $22	+5% $99	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $133	-0.5pp $78	base $22	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,375
• Closing costs: $6,645
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3301 S Goldfield Rd Unit 4077 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1548	$1,850	$1.20	25d	1	0.11mi
2369 E 35th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1892	$2,100	$1.11	5d	1	0.71mi
3705 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	25d	1	0.72mi
3333 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,900	$2.09	25d	1	0.73mi
3879 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,910	$1.21	25d	1	0.75mi
2681 E Boulder Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	3.5	1776	$2,200	$1.24	25d	1	0.76mi
2217 E 35th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	2260	$2,010	$0.89	13d	1	0.81mi
2213 E 35th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	2332	$2,385	$1.02	3d	1	0.82mi
3277 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,770	$1.10	4d	1	0.90mi
3478 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,850	$1.15	6d	1	0.93mi
1807 E 36th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	2261	$3,175	$1.40	24d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $221,500 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-05-01
   price $221,500
3. 2026-03-10
   price $218,000
4. 2026-02-10
   price $224,900
5. 2025-12-14
   listed $229,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,407
• − Property taxes: −$3,322
• − Insurance: −$1,108
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$6,444
• Taxable loss: −$3,473
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$833
• After-tax cash flow: $1,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $221,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $218,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $224,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Listed $229,500 ARMLS