3972 Ward Lake Trl · Panthersville, GA 30294

$274,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2000 7,840 sqft lot $87/sqft · 15% below area Est $322k · 15% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home in the quiet Ward Lake Estates. Boasting 2,340 sq. ft. of livable space, this two-story residence features a functional open floor plan on a solid slab foundation. The main level offers durable laminate flooring, a cozy family room with a gas-starter fireplace, and a sleek kitchen equipped with a dishwasher, oven/range, and refrigerator. Upstairs, you'll find comfortable carpeted bedrooms, including a primary suite with ample closet space. Exterior highlights include a low-maintenance vinyl facade, a 1-car detached garage, and a private rear patio overlooking the backyard.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Private rear patio
• 7,840 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GAS STARTER FIREPLACE
• LOW MAINTENANCE VINYL FACADE
• PRIVATE REAR PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family house; Residential resale; Built in 2000
• Construction: Composition roof; Aluminum and vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace in family room; Two levels; Living area reported from public records
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-257 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#180 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #873 of 1,228 statewide, top 71%, 565 students, 100% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #433 of 470 statewide, top 93%, 777 students, 100% FRL); Cedar Grove High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #336 of 424 statewide, top 80%, 1,123 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,531 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,185
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -14.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4225 Ward Bluff Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,040 (-3%)	15mo	$265,000	$87	71
2546 Brittany Park Cv	0.66mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,123 (-1%)	20mo	$415,000	$133	42
2594 Boulder Springs Pt	0.51mi	3/3.0	2,744 (-13%)	15mo	$269,500	$98	40
2578 Brittany Park Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,786 (-11%)	5mo	$347,500	$125	39
192 Palisade Point Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,719 (-14%)	13mo	$350,000	$129	34
2580 Brittany Park Cv	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,695 (-14%)	13mo	$401,000	$149	34
2450 Yolanda Trl	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,928 (-7%)	21mo	$293,550	$100	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-57,222
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-55,220
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30294

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$483 /mo · $5,795/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $229,437

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4149 Connor Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	2300	$1,975	$0.86	5d	1	0.82mi
2627 Tolliver Dr Unit A11 Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	2650	$1,644	$0.62	43d	1	0.83mi
4095 Gracewood Park Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	2394	$2,389	$1.00	22d	1	1.03mi
2526 Riverwood Spg Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	2354	$2,460	$1.05	24d	1	1.23mi
4197 Grant Forest Cir Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	2208	$2,300	$1.04	43d	1	1.45mi
3346 Clevemont Way Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	2216	$1,886	$0.85	5d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $274,900 Under Contract 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $274,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $274,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-05-07
   historical Active Under Contract 633-char remark
5. 2026-04-24
   listed $274,900 New 633-char remark
6. 2012-08-15
   historical
7. 2012-03-26
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,795 · $483/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,795 · $483/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$5,795
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$7,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,880
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 1301740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,448
• Composite: 20.92/100
• National rank: #8482
• State rank: #125 of 174 in GA

Livability — Panthersville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #11244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,983
• Household income: $79,762
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 839,977 people
• By 2030: 891,768 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 988,894 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 1,074,583 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 1,245,026 · +48.2%
• By 2100: 1,303,135 · +55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 81.9% · R 17.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.1pp toward D · 2008: 58.6pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+67.4 2016: D+64.8 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.99%
• Current HPI: 213.1999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+266.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-24 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $274,900 GAMLS
• 2012-08-15 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2012-03-26 Listed $75,000 FMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,795 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.