4452 Kentford Rd · Owings Mills, MD 21117

$275,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,682 sqft · Townhouse public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1996 1,765 sqft lot Est $326k · 16% under $90/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 level home with numerous overflow parking. Lots of potential. The home qualifies for the MMCT (majority minority census tract) Program. No PMI, 620 minimum credit score, $5000 grant at settlement, $5,000 community uplift program (Baltimore MSA) for down payment in addition to the grant of $5000. Both first-time buyers and repeat buyers are eligible. Ask me.

Key facts

• $90 HOA
• Built 1996
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is fee simple
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $90 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cooling: other
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Slab foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (all upper levels); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Central heating fuel; 60+ gallon hot water tank
• Interior features: Basement with connecting stairway; Living area measured per assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-682/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Owings Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in MD, #2,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, schools D-.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $275k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,571 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $326,308
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4427 Kentford Rd	0.06mi	3/3.0	1,652 (-2%)	0mo	$380,000	$230	92
9500 Side Brook Rd #304	0.38mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,610 (-4%)	6mo	$329,000	$204	65
4500 Chaucer Way #403	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (-2%)	2mo	$290,000	$177	64
9905 Bon Haven Ln	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,540 (-8%)	7mo	$324,900	$211	58
16 Cypress Grv	0.30mi	3/3.5	1,856 (+10%)	10mo	$369,000	$199	57
9 Bannock Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,744 (+4%)	4mo	$255,000	$146	56
4600 Alcott Way #401	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,809 (+8%)	4mo	$225,000	$124	52
9537 Branchleigh Rd	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-5%)	10mo	$310,000	$194	51
4133 Brown Bark Cir	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,824 (+8%)	8mo	$350,000	$192	48
13 Aspen Glen Ct	0.30mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,920 (+14%)	11mo	$360,000	$188	44
4313 Plinlimmon Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,848 (+10%)	3mo	$499,995	$271	42
4606 Mews Dr	0.74mi	3/3.0	1,934 (+15%)	4mo	$320,000	$165	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-48,369
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-47,552
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21117

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,556 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$429 /mo · $5,150/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,628

Max offer price $264,960

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4603 Lathe Rd Owings Mills, MD	2.0	1.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	5d	1	0.13mi
4700 Winterset Way Owings Mills, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1118	$2,431	$2.17	2d	18	0.17mi
9711 Bon Haven Ln Owings Mills, MD	3.0	2.5	1572	$2,800	$1.78	44d	1	0.28mi
16 Cypress Grove Ct Owings Mills, MD	3.0	3.5	1856	$3,200	$1.72	44d	1	0.30mi
9821 Bon Haven Ln Owings Mills, MD	3.0	2.5	1576	$2,650	$1.68	44d	1	0.41mi
4810 Coyle Rd Owings Mills, MD	2.0–3.0	2.0	1792	$2,930	$1.64	24d	9	0.53mi
4604 Owings Run Rd Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	2.0	1102	$2,374	$2.15	2d	22	0.60mi
4606 Cascade Mills Dr Owings Mills, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1300	$2,407	$1.85	2d	19	0.61mi
9421 Adelaide Ln Owings Mills, MD	3.0	2.5	2236	$2,899	$1.30	24d	1	0.64mi
9454 James Macgowan Ln #447 Owings Mills, MD	2.0	2.5	1708	$2,850	$1.67	44d	1	0.64mi
4300 Flint Hill Dr Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,527	$2.41	2d	30	0.67mi
4108 Springsleigh Rd Randallstown, MD	3.0	2.0	1752	$2,295	$1.31	22d	1	0.69mi
4112 Brown Bark Cir Randallstown, MD	3.0	2.5	1824	$2,959	$1.62	11d	1	0.73mi
4254 Cayuga Rd Randallstown, MD	3.0	4.0	1760	$2,400	$1.36	44d	1	0.76mi
9324 Town Place Dr Owings Mills, MD	2.0	2.5	1760	$2,400	$1.36	24d	1	0.81mi
9902 Cervidae Ln Randallstown, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1257	$2,026	$1.61	2d	22	0.84mi
5212 Stone Shop Cir Owings Mills, MD	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,900	$1.68	24d	1	0.91mi
4983 Lockard Dr Owings Mills, MD	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,600	$1.57	3d	1	0.95mi
3901 Noyes Cir Randallstown, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1196	$2,254	$1.88	19d	27	0.98mi
4733 Buxton Cir Owings Mills, MD	3.0	4.0	1752	$2,700	$1.54	44d	1	1.00mi
4200 Deer Park Rd Unit 1 Randallstown, MD	4.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	3d	1	1.02mi
3971 Red Deer Cir Randallstown, MD	3.0	3.5	1400	$2,400	$1.71	12d	1	1.03mi
9357 Owings Choice Ct Owings Mills, MD	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,750	$1.38	44d	1	1.04mi
4826 Buxton Cir Owings Mills, MD	3.0	2.5	1595	$2,700	$1.69	44d	1	1.05mi
9204 Appleford Cir Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1001	$2,551	$2.55	2d	22	1.06mi
4717 Wainwright Cir Owings Mills, MD	4.0	3.5	2112	$3,500	$1.66	44d	1	1.08mi
9745 Reese Farm Rd Owings Mills, MD	2.0	2.0	1193	$2,125	$1.78	44d	1	1.15mi
9401 Groveton Cir Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$2,800	$2.42	2d	15	1.15mi
3 Rebecca Ln Owings Mills, MD	3.0	2.5	1730	$2,775	$1.60	44d	1	1.15mi
9210 Leigh Choice Ct Owings Mills, MD	3.0	2.5	1607	$2,640	$1.64	44d	1	1.16mi
4925 Riders Ct #4925 Owings Mills, MD	2.0	2.0	1193	$1,900	$1.59	44d	1	1.16mi
9224 Owings Choice Ct Owings Mills, MD	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,400	$1.62	22d	1	1.18mi
3806 Byxbee Rd Randallstown, MD	2.0	1.5	1764	$2,450	$1.39	44d	1	1.23mi
9102 Sandra Ct Randallstown, MD	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,650	$1.66	20d	1	1.24mi
9101 Amber Oaks Way Owings Mills, MD	2.0	1.0	1302	$1,850	$1.42	44d	1	1.30mi
100 Chase Mill Cir Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,550	$2.71	2d	12	1.36mi
3715 Peace Chance Dr Randallstown, MD	3.0	2.5	1960	$2,950	$1.51	18d	1	1.42mi
4700 Riverstone Dr Owings Mills, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1055	$2,555	$2.42	2d	24	1.42mi
9317 Lykens Ct Randallstown, MD	4.0	3.5	2104	$3,499	$1.66	44d	1	1.43mi
8813 Stone Ridge Cir #202 Pikesville, MD	2.0	2.0	1208	$2,200	$1.82	16d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-16
   listed $275,000 Active
2. 2003-05-09
   soldstatus $165,000
3. 2003-04-30
   soldstatus $165,000
4. 2003-04-04
   historical
5. 2003-03-25
   listed $164,900
6. 1996-06-10
   soldstatus $243,280

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,150 · $429/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,150 · $429/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,150
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,453
• − Management: −$2,453
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,259
• After-tax cash flow: $577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Owings Mills

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2037

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Owings Mills, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 62,816
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 62,816
• Household income: $101,831
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2285.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 30% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.00%
• Current HPI: 229.4095
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.87%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+13.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-30 Sold (MLS) $165,000 MRIS
• 2003-04-04 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-03-25 Listed $164,900 MRIS
• 1996-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $243,280 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,150 · +31.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.