166 Amber St · Buffalo, NY 14220

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,277 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1920 3,810 sqft lot Est $226k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Shows like a New Home!! New kitchen cabinets, counters & floor. New Bathroom vanity, tub, tile & floor. New windows and exterior doors. Fresh paint in every room, and the basement Drylocked. House rewired with hardwired Smoke and C. O. Detectors. New plumbing thru-out. Plush carpet in bedrooms and living room. Great heated enclosed porch for year round enjoyment. New front steps, and nice size deck with new handrails and a fresh coat of stain in back. New black top driveway from curb to backyard. New roof on front porch, newer roof on garage. Move in and have a worry free home for many years!

Key facts

• 3,810 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.30%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,029
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39 Crystal Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-2%)	0mo	$212,000	$170	85
67 Lockwood Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,232 (-4%)	5mo	$232,000	$188	80
105 Sheffield Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-5%)	0mo	$215,000	$177	75
29 Garvey Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,183 (-7%)	4mo	$225,000	$190	68
66 Woodside Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+7%)	3mo	$250,000	$183	68
53 Richfield Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-10%)	4mo	$275,000	$239	66
77 Cantwell Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,275 (-0%)	1mo	$210,000	$165	66
32 Lorraine Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,365 (+7%)	3mo	$235,000	$172	61
120 Pries Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,138 (-11%)	3mo	$220,000	$193	61
66 Choate Ave	0.25mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,449 (+14%)	2mo	$245,066	$169	58
417 Abbott Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+6%)	4mo	$223,000	$165	54
112 Hubbell Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,161 (-9%)	4mo	$205,000	$177	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $11,411
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $73,178
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $499/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $948

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $459	-5% $423	+0% $388	+5% $353	+10% $317
Rent	-10% $274	-5% $331	+0% $388	+5% $445	+10% $502
Rate	-1.0pp $451	-0.5pp $420	base $388	+0.5pp $356	+1.0pp $323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
74 Woodside Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,510	$1.21	2d	1	0.32mi
86 Edgewood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	2d	1	0.57mi
89 Macamley St #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,100	$0.86	11d	1	0.58mi
214 Abbott Rd Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	945	$1,200	$1.27	15d	1	0.75mi
298 Cumberland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1208	$2,200	$1.82	2d	1	0.78mi
700 Hopkins St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,225	$1.11	15d	1	0.88mi
40 Vincent Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1075	$875	$0.81	24d	1	1.04mi
76 Hammerschmidt Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,275	$1.06	2d	1	1.07mi
2111 Seneca St #3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	937	$1,150	$1.23	44d	1	1.08mi
1927 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	24d	1	1.12mi
1899 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,075	$0.95	15d	1	1.13mi
34 Hayden St Unit Back Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	1.18mi
23 Indian Orchard Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	44d	1	1.33mi
102 Wildwood Pl Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	16d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-06-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-29
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2014-08-20
   soldstatus $89,900 611-char remark

   Show marketing remark (611 chars)

   Shows like a New Home!! New kitchen cabinets, counters & floor. New Bathroom vanity, tub, tile & floor. New windows and exterior doors. Fresh paint in every room, and the basement Drylocked. House rewired with hardwired Smoke and C. O. Detectors. New plumbing thru-out. Plush carpet in bedrooms and living room. Great heated enclosed porch for year round enjoyment. New front steps, and nice size deck with new handrails and a fresh coat of stain in back. New black top driveway from curb to backyard. New roof on front porch, newer roof on garage. Move in and have a worry free home for many years!

4. 2014-08-18
   soldstatus $89,900
5. 2014-05-14
   listed $89,900 611-char remark

   Show marketing remark (611 chars)

   Shows like a New Home!! New kitchen cabinets, counters & floor. New Bathroom vanity, tub, tile & floor. New windows and exterior doors. Fresh paint in every room, and the basement Drylocked. House rewired with hardwired Smoke and C. O. Detectors. New plumbing thru-out. Plush carpet in bedrooms and living room. Great heated enclosed porch for year round enjoyment. New front steps, and nice size deck with new handrails and a fresh coat of stain in back. New black top driveway from curb to backyard. New roof on front porch, newer roof on garage. Move in and have a worry free home for many years!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $499 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,306 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$807/yr (+$67/mo · 161.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$499
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,382
• − Management: −$1,382
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,748
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$659
• After-tax cash flow: $3,997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+39.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2014-08-20 Sold (MLS) $89,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 2014-05-14 Listed $89,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $499 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.