CAPROCK Plan · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$247,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily · 430 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the thoughtfully designed Caprock plan, a charming single-story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Step inside through the inviting front porch and foyer, where you'll find the utility room and convenient garage access nearby. Just off the entry, one of the secondary bedrooms is situated at the front of the home-ideal for a guest suite, home office, or flex space-located near a full secondary bathroom for added convenience. As you continue into the heart of the home, you're welcomed by an open-concept design that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room, and family room. The kitchen is beautifully equipped with stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, a walk-in pantry, and a spacious island perfect for meal prep or casual dining. The dining room opens directly into the family room, creating an airy space that's perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. Tucked privately at the back of the home, the primary bedroom offers a peaceful retreat with its own en-suite bathroom featuring dual sinks, a large shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. An additional secondary bedroom is conveniently located nearby, providing flexible space for family or guests. With its functional layout, open living spaces, and smart design, the Caprock plan offers both comfort and convenience for modern living. Images and 3D tours are for illustration only and options may vary from home as built.

Key facts

• Heated lazy river
• Excellent schools
• Luxurious pool

Tags

• MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY
• LUXURIOUS POOL
• SPLASH PARK
• RECREATION FIELDS
• HEATED LAZY RIVER
• EXCELLENT SCHOOLS

🏗️ New construction. The $247,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,711.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-781/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $248k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.1% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 430 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,231 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 430 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.95%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,711
• List price: $247,990
• Delta: -15.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8911 New Jade Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-4%)	0mo	$304,900	$222	89
2415 Cherry Ruby Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-3%)	11mo	$244,490	$175	86
8902 Ice Quartz Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-1%)	6mo	$290,900	$205	86
2426 Imperial Jade Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+2%)	11mo	$249,990	$170	86
2558 Green Jasper Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-4%)	4mo	$299,900	$218	81
2419 Jasper Breeze Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-2%)	9mo	$277,990	$197	80
8951 New Jade Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,561 (+9%)	2mo	$319,900	$205	76
8903 New Jade Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+13%)	0mo	$327,900	$202	75
8935 New Jade Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+13%)	2mo	$327,900	$202	71
2415 Imperial Jade Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,573 (+10%)	10mo	$249,990	$159	70
9235 Ruth Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+6%)	0mo	$459,900	$301	64
8918 Ice Quartz Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+13%)	8mo	$303,900	$188	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-58,133
• Equity at exit: $43,942

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-80,243
• Equity at exit: $25,481

Cash invested: $82,519 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.4 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $308,490 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 149 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,545
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$368 /mo · $4,421/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,578

Max offer price $285,289

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $37	+0% $-65	+5% $-167	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-262	-5% $-164	+0% $-65	+5% $33	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $10	base $-65	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,678
• Closing costs: $8,841
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,425	$1.31	16d	1	0.08mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,225	$1.43	8d	1	0.24mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,121	$1.14	0d	1	0.84mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,836	$1.15	21d	1	0.96mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,186	$1.26	30d	1	1.31mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	71d	1	1.41mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	92d	1	1.42mi
10203 Karsten Blvd Rosharon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,056	$2.20	0d	95	1.47mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-07-13
   days on market $247,990 Active 430 DOM
2. 2026-07-13
   days on market $247,990 Active 429 DOM
3. 2026-07-11
   days on market $247,990 Active 428 DOM
4. 2026-07-10
   days on market $247,990 Active 427 DOM
5. 2026-07-09
   days on market $247,990 Active 426 DOM
6. 2026-07-07
   days on market $247,990 Active 424 DOM
7. 2026-07-06
   days on market $247,990 Active 423 DOM
8. 2026-07-06
   days on market $247,990 Active 422 DOM
9. 2026-07-05
   days on market $247,990 Active 421 DOM
10. 2026-07-03
    days on market $247,990 Active 420 DOM
11. 2026-07-02
    days on market $247,990 Active 419 DOM
12. 2026-07-01
    days on market $247,990 Active 418 DOM
13. 2026-06-30
    days on market $247,990 Active 417 DOM
14. 2026-06-29
    days on market $247,990 Active 416 DOM
15. 2026-06-28
    days on market $247,990 Active 415 DOM
16. 2026-06-27
    days on market $247,990 Active 414 DOM
17. 2026-06-26
    days on market $247,990 Active 413 DOM
18. 2026-06-24
    days on market $247,990 Active 411 DOM
19. 2026-06-22
    days on market $247,990 Active 409 DOM
20. 2026-06-21
    days on market $247,990 Active 408 DOM
21. 2026-06-18
    days on market $247,990 Active 405 DOM
22. 2026-06-17
    days on market $247,990 Active 404 DOM
23. 2026-06-16
    days on market $247,990 Active 403 DOM
24. 2026-06-15
    days on market $247,990 Active 402 DOM
25. 2026-06-13
    days on market $247,990 Active 400 DOM
26. 2026-06-13
    days on market $247,990 Active 399 DOM
27. 2026-06-09
    days on market $247,990 Active 396 DOM
28. 2026-06-08
    days on market $247,990 Active 395 DOM
29. 2026-06-07
    days on market $247,990 Active 394 DOM
30. 2026-06-04
    days on market $247,990 Active 391 DOM
31. 2026-06-03
    days on market $247,990 Active 390 DOM
32. 2026-06-02
    days on market $247,990 Active 389 DOM
33. 2026-06-01
    days on market $247,990 Active 388 DOM
34. 2026-05-31
    days on market $247,990 Active 387 DOM
35. 2025-05-21
    price $247,990 1439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1439 chars)

    Welcome to the thoughtfully designed Caprock plan, a charming single-story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Step inside through the inviting front porch and foyer, where you'll find the utility room and convenient garage access nearby. Just off the entry, one of the secondary bedrooms is situated at the front of the home-ideal for a guest suite, home office, or flex space-located near a full secondary bathroom for added convenience. As you continue into the heart of the home, you're welcomed by an open-concept design that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room, and family room. The kitchen is beautifully equipped with stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, a walk-in pantry, and a spacious island perfect for meal prep or casual dining. The dining room opens directly into the family room, creating an airy space that's perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. Tucked privately at the back of the home, the primary bedroom offers a peaceful retreat with its own en-suite bathroom featuring dual sinks, a large shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. An additional secondary bedroom is conveniently located nearby, providing flexible space for family or guests. With its functional layout, open living spaces, and smart design, the Caprock plan offers both comfort and convenience for modern living. Images and 3D tours are for illustration only and options may vary from home as built.

36. 2025-05-09
    listed $263,990 Active 1439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1439 chars)

    Welcome to the thoughtfully designed Caprock plan, a charming single-story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Step inside through the inviting front porch and foyer, where you'll find the utility room and convenient garage access nearby. Just off the entry, one of the secondary bedrooms is situated at the front of the home-ideal for a guest suite, home office, or flex space-located near a full secondary bathroom for added convenience. As you continue into the heart of the home, you're welcomed by an open-concept design that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room, and family room. The kitchen is beautifully equipped with stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, a walk-in pantry, and a spacious island perfect for meal prep or casual dining. The dining room opens directly into the family room, creating an airy space that's perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. Tucked privately at the back of the home, the primary bedroom offers a peaceful retreat with its own en-suite bathroom featuring dual sinks, a large shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. An additional secondary bedroom is conveniently located nearby, providing flexible space for family or guests. With its functional layout, open living spaces, and smart design, the Caprock plan offers both comfort and convenience for modern living. Images and 3D tours are for illustration only and options may vary from home as built.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,508
• − Property taxes: −$4,421
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,396
• − Management: −$2,396
• − Depreciation: −$8,573
• Taxable loss: −$5,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,397
• After-tax cash flow: $615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,170–$21,510 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain HVAC system — Improves air quality and energy efficiency, attracting buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances home's modern appeal and adds value to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add smart lighting system — Enhances home's modern appeal and adds value to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds value to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-09 Listed $263,990 Zillow