Hamilton Plan · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$370,250

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,861 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Hamilton home plan, a beautifully designed one-story residence that embraces the essence of open concept living. This layout seamlessly connects the gourmet kitchen to the dining area, making entertaining guests both easy and enjoyable. The kitchen features ample prep space and modern amenities, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. The well-appointed primary bedroom with en-suite offers a tranquil escape with a separate tub and shower, complemented by a spacious walk-in closet that ensures organization and convenience. Every secondary bedroom is thoughtfully designed with walk-in closets, providing plenty of storage for family members or guests. Experience the perfect blend of comfort and functionality in the Hamilton home plan, ideal for modern living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 99 days

🏗️ New construction. The $370,250 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $431,647.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $370k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-798 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.6% in Mont Belvieu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($337k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,530 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.93%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $431,647
• List price: $370,250
• Delta: -14.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10007 Goliad Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (+3%)	4mo	$339,990	$178	78
15034 Mission Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,807 (-3%)	5mo	$439,990	$243	75
14810 Buffalo Head St	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,052 (+10%)	3mo	$429,990	$210	74
9910 Red Knot	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,079 (+12%)	2mo	$432,430	$208	70
14807 Mission Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (+12%)	3mo	$349,990	$168	66
15023 Gulfstream Park Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,047 (+10%)	1mo	$400,000	$195	60
15214 Lake Front Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,065 (+11%)	5mo	$369,900	$179	53
7419 Hillside Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (-6%)	4mo	$350,000	$199	48
15315 Lake Front Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,047 (+10%)	4mo	$414,900	$203	47
14818 Augusta Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,063 (+11%)	11mo	$414,999	$201	44
7219 Keechi Pl	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (+10%)	13mo	$389,900	$190	41
15359 Spring Lake Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (+10%)	4mo	$439,900	$214	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-119,582
• Equity at exit: $64,360

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-164,585
• Equity at exit: $37,321

Cash invested: $120,861 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,264
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$540 /mo · $6,475/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,776

Max offer price $316,113

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-500	-5% $-649	+0% $-798	+5% $-948	+10% $-1,097
Rent	-10% $-1,017	-5% $-908	+0% $-798	+5% $-689	+10% $-580
Rate	-1.0pp $-581	-0.5pp $-689	base $-798	+0.5pp $-910	+1.0pp $-1,024

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,912
• Closing costs: $12,949
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9922 Red Knot ST Mont Belvieu, TX	5.0	3.0	2563	$3,399	$1.33	26d	1	0.09mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $370,250 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $370,250 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $370,250 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $370,250 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $370,250 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $370,250 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $370,250 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $370,250 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $370,250 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $370,250 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $370,250 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $370,250 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $370,250 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $370,250 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-03-14
    listed $370,250 Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Introducing the Hamilton home plan, a beautifully designed one-story residence that embraces the essence of open concept living. This layout seamlessly connects the gourmet kitchen to the dining area, making entertaining guests both easy and enjoyable. The kitchen features ample prep space and modern amenities, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. The well-appointed primary bedroom with en-suite offers a tranquil escape with a separate tub and shower, complemented by a spacious walk-in closet that ensures organization and convenience. Every secondary bedroom is thoughtfully designed with walk-in closets, providing plenty of storage for family members or guests. Experience the perfect blend of comfort and functionality in the Hamilton home plan, ideal for modern living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,179
• − Property taxes: −$6,475
• − Insurance: −$2,158
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,655
• − Management: −$2,655
• − Depreciation: −$12,557
• Taxable loss: −$17,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,199
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Hamilton home plan is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior trim and landscaping would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes interior and exterior
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes interior and exterior ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mont Belvieu, TX
• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $370,250 Zillow