304 N 1st St · Nolanville, TX 76559

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2003 8,407 sqft lot $133/sqft · 7% below area Est $182k · 7% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Awesome price on this lovely brick home with 3 bedroom, 2 bath sitting on a great corner lot in Nolanville. Small town living that's convenient to Belton, Temple, Heights, and Killeen. It has an nice open floorplan. Spacious family area that opens to dining and kitchen. Great kitchen with tile backsplash, granite countertops and appliances to include range, fridge, dishwasher and microwave. Split bedrooms plan with the master bedroom to the rear, featuring a nice on-suite bath with a double vanity, shower and walk in closets. The 2 minor bedrooms share the bath in the front hall. Easy care laminate flooring throughout. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

Key facts

• Spacious family area
• Open floorplan
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• CORNER LOT
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• SPACIOUS FAMILY AREA
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-243 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Nolanville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#176 in TX, #4,655 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $63 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,027 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.17%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,948
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -7.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 Cindy Ln	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,336 (+5%)	16mo	$185,000	$138	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-20,016
• Equity at exit: $49,386

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-14,360
• Equity at exit: $59,615

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76559

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,388 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$383 /mo · $4,601/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,696

Max offer price $126,027

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 East Avenue H Unit H Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,550	$1.12	23d	1	0.18mi
402 Topeka Ct Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	43d	1	0.18mi
408 W St John Ave Apt A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,100	$0.88	43d	1	0.31mi
310 10th St Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,095	$0.85	43d	1	0.43mi
106 Cedar Ridge Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$1,695	$0.94	13d	1	0.60mi
240 W Elm St Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	0.74mi
406 Diana Ln Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,600	$0.99	43d	1	1.30mi
2053 Stillwell St Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1811	$2,300	$1.27	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-09
   historical Active Under Contract 685-char remark

   Show marketing remark (685 chars)

   Awesome price on this lovely brick home with 3 bedroom, 2 bath sitting on a great corner lot in Nolanville. Small town living that's convenient to Belton, Temple, Heights, and Killeen. It has an nice open floorplan. Spacious family area that opens to dining and kitchen. Great kitchen with tile backsplash, granite countertops and appliances to include range, fridge, dishwasher and microwave. Split bedrooms plan with the master bedroom to the rear, featuring a nice on-suite bath with a double vanity, shower and walk in closets. The 2 minor bedrooms share the bath in the front hall. Easy care laminate flooring throughout. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

2. 2026-04-22
   price $169,000 685-char remark

   Show marketing remark (685 chars)

   Awesome price on this lovely brick home with 3 bedroom, 2 bath sitting on a great corner lot in Nolanville. Small town living that's convenient to Belton, Temple, Heights, and Killeen. It has an nice open floorplan. Spacious family area that opens to dining and kitchen. Great kitchen with tile backsplash, granite countertops and appliances to include range, fridge, dishwasher and microwave. Split bedrooms plan with the master bedroom to the rear, featuring a nice on-suite bath with a double vanity, shower and walk in closets. The 2 minor bedrooms share the bath in the front hall. Easy care laminate flooring throughout. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

3. 2026-03-16
   listed $179,000 Active 685-char remark

   Show marketing remark (685 chars)

   Awesome price on this lovely brick home with 3 bedroom, 2 bath sitting on a great corner lot in Nolanville. Small town living that's convenient to Belton, Temple, Heights, and Killeen. It has an nice open floorplan. Spacious family area that opens to dining and kitchen. Great kitchen with tile backsplash, granite countertops and appliances to include range, fridge, dishwasher and microwave. Split bedrooms plan with the master bedroom to the rear, featuring a nice on-suite bath with a double vanity, shower and walk in closets. The 2 minor bedrooms share the bath in the front hall. Easy care laminate flooring throughout. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

4. 2026-01-22
   soldstatus
5. 2025-07-22
   historical
6. 2025-06-07
   status Active
7. 2025-06-07
   status Active
8. 2025-04-12
   listed Active
9. 2025-04-03
   price $230,000
10. 2024-11-15
    listed $240,000 Active
11. 2024-08-13
    historical
12. 2024-04-15
    listed $236,300 Active
13. 2024-03-09
    historical
14. 2023-12-06
    listed $236,300 Active
15. 2022-05-03
    soldstatus
16. 2021-11-05
    status Pending
17. 2021-11-05
    historical
18. 2021-10-14
    status Active
19. 2021-10-13
    status Pending
20. 2021-09-29
    status Active
21. 2021-09-17
    status Pending
22. 2021-08-25
    listed $189,000 Active
23. 2004-12-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,601 · $383/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,601 · $383/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$4,601
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,333
• − Management: −$1,333
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$5,834
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,400
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nolanville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #176
• US rank: #4655

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nolanville, TX
• City population: 6,896
• Population (ZIP): 6,896

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 170.1375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $169,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $179,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-22 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-06-07 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-07 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2025-04-12 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $230,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-11-15 Listed $240,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-13 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-04-15 Listed $236,300 CTXMLS
• 2024-03-09 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2023-12-06 Listed $236,300 CTXMLS
• 2022-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-05 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2021-11-05 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2021-10-14 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2021-10-13 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2021-09-29 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2021-09-17 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2021-08-25 Listed $189,000 CTXMLS
• 2004-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,601 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.