858 County Road 1006 · Celeste, TX 75423

$450,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1995 6.84 ac lot $226/sqft · 35% above area Est $581k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on a beautiful piece of ag-exempt land, this log cabin offers a rare opportunity to bring a dream to life. The owner thoughtfully began building this rustic retreat with the vision of a warm, inviting home surrounded by nature. Sadly, the project has been left unfinished, and the property is now being offered AS IS for someone new to complete the story. It is currently 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, but could easily be made into 4 or more bedrooms or a loft upstairs. While construction is incomplete, much of the groundwork has been started, giving buyers a head start on creating a one-of-a-kind residence. In addition to the main cabin, there is a second structure on the property that can be torn down, offering an opportunity to clear space for future improvements or expansion. Whether you’re an investor, builder, or someone looking to customize your own cabin getaway, this property provides a blank canvas full of possibility. With vision and craftsmanship, this unfinished home can be transformed into a stunning retreat or full-time residence. Sold as-is. Bring your ideas and make this cabin your own!!

Key facts

• Unfinished project
• Second structure
• Blank canvas

Tags

• AG-EXEMPT LAND
• LOG CABIN
• UNFINISHED PROJECT
• SECOND STRUCTURE
• BLANK CANVAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (51.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (61.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (61.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 2.0% in Celeste — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,095 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wolfe City ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #254 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wolfe City El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 347 students, 62% FRL); Wolfe City Middle (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 152 students, 56% FRL); Wolfe City H S (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 221 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,593 (61.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.39% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.56%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 21.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $580,787
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -22.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $160,898
• Equity at exit: $405,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $539,403
• Equity at exit: $874,251

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75423

• Home prices YoY: 31.3%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 21.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,897/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-1,318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,425

Max offer price $217,120

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,064	-5% $-1,191	+0% $-1,318	+5% $-1,446	+10% $-1,573
Rent	-10% $-1,457	-5% $-1,388	+0% $-1,318	+5% $-1,249	+10% $-1,180
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,092	-0.5pp $-1,204	base $-1,318	+0.5pp $-1,435	+1.0pp $-1,554

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $450,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $450,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $450,000 Active 1126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1126 chars)

    Nestled on a beautiful piece of ag-exempt land, this log cabin offers a rare opportunity to bring a dream to life. The owner thoughtfully began building this rustic retreat with the vision of a warm, inviting home surrounded by nature. Sadly, the project has been left unfinished, and the property is now being offered AS IS for someone new to complete the story. It is currently 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, but could easily be made into 4 or more bedrooms or a loft upstairs. While construction is incomplete, much of the groundwork has been started, giving buyers a head start on creating a one-of-a-kind residence. In addition to the main cabin, there is a second structure on the property that can be torn down, offering an opportunity to clear space for future improvements or expansion. Whether you’re an investor, builder, or someone looking to customize your own cabin getaway, this property provides a blank canvas full of possibility. With vision and craftsmanship, this unfinished home can be transformed into a stunning retreat or full-time residence. Sold as-is. Bring your ideas and make this cabin your own!!

17. 2000-06-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,897 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,235 · $686/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,338/yr (+$528/mo · 334.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$1,897
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$24,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,939
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wolfe City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846350
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,926
• Composite: 38.98/100
• National rank: #4074
• State rank: #254 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celeste

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1095
• US rank: #19367

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,088
• Population (ZIP): 3,088

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 9% Native American 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 71.87%
• Current HPI: 301.3118
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $450,000 NTREIS
• 2000-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,897 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.