158 Burns Ave · Hicksville, NY 11801

$599,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1960 6,000 sqft lot Est $705k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Endless potential awaits in this charming Cape-style home! This is a diamond in the rough. With a new heating system, updated roof, and hardwood floors throughout, the essentials are ready—just bring your vision to make it your own. The flexible layout offers in-law suite potential, while the spacious basement with its own outside entrance opens up possibilities for extra living space, a gym, or a workshop. Plus, the kitchen features convenient gas cooking. Don’t miss this fantastic opportunity to create the home of your dreams! Some phots were AI enhanced

Key facts

• Updated roof
• Outside entrance
• Spacious basement

Tags

• NEW HEATING SYSTEM
• UPDATED ROOF
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• IN-LAW SUITE POTENTIAL
• SPACIOUS BASEMENT
• OUTSIDE ENTRANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $572k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $465k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $465k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in Hicksville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#31 in NY, #526 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Hicksville Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #200 of 590 in NY (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Burns Avenue School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 290 students, 49% FRL); Hicksville Middle School (math 39% / reading 61%, grade C, #261 of 729 statewide, top 36%, 1,185 students, 52% FRL); Hicksville High School (math 76% / reading 77%, grade A-, #612 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 1,852 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 24% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($146k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $188k; list at $599k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $464,597 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $705,024
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
158 Burns Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,296 (0%)	1mo	$680,000	$525	99
70 Nevada St	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,274 (-2%)	1mo	$810,000	$636	84
99 Nevada St	0.25mi	4/3.0	1,258 (-3%)	12mo	$768,000	$610	70
7 Montana St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,132 (-13%)	4mo	$749,000	$662	59
12 Schiller St	0.65mi	4/3.0	1,300 (+0%)	10mo	$744,000	$572	56
5 Milton St	0.67mi	4/3.0	1,373 (+6%)	3mo	$615,000	$448	52
87 Myers Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+8%)	17mo	$745,000	$532	52
5 Willet Ave	0.51mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,326 (+2%)	20mo	$717,000	$541	50
49 Burns Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,405 (+8%)	21mo	$765,000	$544	47
4 Franklin St	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,412 (+9%)	10mo	$642,000	$455	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-105,082
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-97,097
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11801

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,646 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$431 /mo · $5,177/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$976
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,838

Max offer price $572,162

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $18	+0% $-152	+5% $-321	+10% $-491
Rent	-10% $-519	-5% $-335	+0% $-152	+5% $32	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $0	base $-152	+0.5pp $-307	+1.0pp $-465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Parkside Dr Jericho, NY	3.0	2.0	1264	$4,900	$3.88	0d	1	0.50mi
103 Wayne St Jericho, NY	3.0	1.5	1562	$4,800	$3.07	0d	1	0.57mi
4 Willow Pl Hicksville, NY	3.0	1.5	1264	$4,500	$3.56	0d	1	0.80mi
21 Twinlawns Ave Hicksville, NY	3.0	1.0	973	$3,500	$3.60	45d	1	1.07mi
9 Harrison Ave Hicksville, NY	3.0	2.0	1218	$4,000	$3.28	45d	1	1.16mi
100 Westwood Dr Westbury, NY	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	865	$4,665	$5.39	0d	1	1.17mi
80 Westwood Dr Unit 205 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,545	$4.48	18d	1	1.21mi
5 Manors Dr Jericho, NY	3.0	2.5	1582	$4,900	$3.10	0d	1	1.21mi
115 Westwood Dr Unit 137 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	3d	1	1.24mi
40 Westwood Dr Unit 46 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1065	$4,625	$4.34	18d	1	1.24mi
105 Westwood Dr Unit 125 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	0d	1	1.25mi
10 Westwood Dr Unit 41 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	0d	1	1.26mi
75 Westwood Dr Unit 105 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	0d	1	1.28mi
65 Westwood Dr Unit 93 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1015	$4,585	$4.52	0d	1	1.30mi
35 Westwood Dr Unit 26 Westbury, NY	3.0	2.0	1065	$4,625	$4.34	45d	1	1.30mi
7 Mindy Ln Westbury, NY	4.0	2.0	1398	$5,300	$3.79	0d	1	1.39mi
11 Howard St Hicksville, NY	5.0	2.0	1658	$5,500	$3.32	3d	1	1.40mi
33 Clarissa Dr Hicksville, NY	4.0	2.0	1098	$4,500	$4.10	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   listed $599,000 Active
3. 1994-03-07
   soldstatus $188,500
4. 1985-06-10
   soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,177 · $431/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,650 · $638/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,473/yr (+$206/mo · 47.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$5,177
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,460
• − Management: −$4,460
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$12,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,957
• After-tax cash flow: $1,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hicksville Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3614340
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $91,592
• Composite: 53.79/100
• National rank: #1417
• State rank: #200 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hicksville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hicksville, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 41,585
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 41,585
• Household income: $145,788
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 398.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Asian 32% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Other Indo-European 24% Spanish 14% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -773.32%
• Current HPI: 321.0586
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+360.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $188,500 Public Records
• 1985-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,177 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.