411 ST George Dr · Haines City, FL 33837

$136,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 351 sqft · Manufactured public records · 140 Days on market

Built 2007 2,731 sqft lot $321/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to DEER CREEK RV GOLF & COUNTRY CLUB! It’s the perfect time to purchase your new BEACHY FLORIDA GETAWAY! Whether you are looking for a sunny place to winter or a full-time residency, this TURNKEY UNIQUE one-bedroom, one bath bungalow is perfect! From the moment you step into the stick-built Florida Room, you can feel the relaxing Florida vibes! This BEACHY BUNGALOW features luxury vinyl flooring, plantation shutters, freshly painted, tiled shower, tiled Florida Room with fireplace, comfy furniture & the most charming décor in the Osprey Point Community is all yours to enjoy! Relax in the hot tub, or under the pergola with plenty of space for entertaining

Key facts

• Front patio
• Hot tub
• Pergola

Tags

• STICK-BUILT FLORIDA ROOM
• TILED SHOWER
• HOT TUB
• PERGOLA
• FRONT PATIO
• WATER FEATURE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community; Pets allowed with breed restrictions; Property type: Residential, mobile home (double wide), completed condition; Lot features: level, near golf course, paved, private maintained road; Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee required); Monthly HOA approximately $296; Association approval required; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball, basketball court, shuffleboard, recreation facilities, sauna, gated community, security, maintenance, laundry, private road, management, community mailbox; Community features: dog park, golf (golf carts OK), sidewalks, irrigation with reclaimed water

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Ground-level parking; Golf cart parking
• Security: Gated community; Security lights
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); Single-story; East-facing; Guest house on property
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built on crawlspace and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Outdoor kitchen; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Open floorplan; Window treatments (shades, shutters)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet with washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $94k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loughman Oaks Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,052 students, 37% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1396 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $946 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $137k implies a 201% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,805 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.64%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-41,140
• Equity at exit: $20,412

10-year hold

• IRR: -75.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.80×
• Total profit: $-69,008
• Equity at exit: $11,837

Cash invested: $38,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1396
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,431/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$321
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,538

Max offer price $93,805

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-166	-5% $-205	+0% $-244	+5% $-283	+10% $-321
Rent	-10% $-341	-5% $-293	+0% $-244	+5% $-195	+10% $-147
Rate	-1.0pp $-175	-0.5pp $-209	base $-244	+0.5pp $-279	+1.0pp $-316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,225
• Closing costs: $4,107
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43420 US-27 Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	300	$950	$3.17	5d	1	0.52mi
43420 US-27 Davenport, FL	—	1.0	300	$1,025	$3.42	25d	1	0.52mi
43420 U.S. 27 Unit 147 Davenport, FL	—	1.0	290	$1,050	$3.62	25d	1	0.54mi
43420 U.S. 27 Unit 414 Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	300	$1,250	$4.17	25d	1	0.57mi
43420 U.S. 27 Unit 154 Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	300	$950	$3.17	25d	1	0.57mi
43420 U.S. 27 Unit 312 Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	300	$900	$3.00	25d	1	0.57mi
44199 US Highway 27 Davenport, FL	—	1.0	275	$950	$3.45	25d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $321 · $3,852/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $136,900 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $136,900 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $136,900 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $136,900 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $136,900 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $136,900 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $136,900 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $136,900 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $136,900 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $136,900 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $136,900 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,999 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-02-01
    listed $139,999 Active
16. 2021-06-16
    soldstatus $45,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,431 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,431 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,669
• − Property taxes: −$1,431
• − Insurance: −$684
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − HOA: −$3,852
• − Depreciation: −$3,983
• Taxable loss: −$5,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,254
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+207.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Listed $139,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,431 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.