9 E Birch St · New Baden, IL 62265

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1945 9,600 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Price listed is Starting Bid Only. The home will be auctioned off on-site at @12 pm on 08/012026. This 1 story home features 1,177 sq. ft. complete with a 24’x30’ detached two-car garage, nice front patio, 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, a living room, an eat-in kitchen. A full basement with laundry and a full attic that could be converted into living space. There is also be a full line of personal property that will start selling at 10 am. Property will sell under auction terms and be sold AS- IS, WHERE-IS. Seller will not make any repairs as a result of any building, occupancy, or environmental inspections. Buyer will be required to sign an Auction Purchase & Sale Agreement and

Key facts

• 9,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1945

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (single phase)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete basement
• Exterior features: City lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level (3 total)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Concrete basement; One-level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $651 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#564 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Wesclin CUSD 3 (rural): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #247 of 620 in IL (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Wesclin Sr High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #157 of 693 statewide, top 25%, 373 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 27% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.90%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,728
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 W Ash St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,515 (-0%)	13mo	$69,900	$46	84
301 W Oak St	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,416 (-7%)	0mo	$75,000	$53	73
308 W Indiana St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,488 (-2%)	8mo	$47,500	$32	72
12 E Ash St	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,302 (-14%)	4mo	$130,000	$100	72
301 W Hanover St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,401 (-8%)	0mo	$185,000	$132	70
704 E Hanover St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+1%)	14mo	$70,000	$46	65
200 W Missouri St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-2%)	17mo	$192,500	$130	62
109 W Ash St	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,667 (+10%)	18mo	$180,000	$108	60
103 W Poos Dr	0.20mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,709 (+13%)	15mo	$219,000	$128	50
106 N 9th St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+8%)	19mo	$224,900	$137	45
826 Margaret Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+1%)	19mo	$139,900	$91	44
1002 E Hanover St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-13%)	13mo	$159,900	$121	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $28,547
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $78,366
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62265

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,520 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,156/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $651

Break-even live

Break-even rent $695

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $697	-5% $674	+0% $651	+5% $629	+10% $606
Rent	-10% $531	-5% $591	+0% $651	+5% $711	+10% $771
Rate	-1.0pp $692	-0.5pp $672	base $651	+0.5pp $631	+1.0pp $610

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 683-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $80,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,156 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$330/yr (+$27/mo · 28.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,156
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,459
• − Management: −$1,459
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $6,955
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,669
• After-tax cash flow: $6,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wesclin CUSD 3
• NCES district ID: 1739420
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $68,295
• Composite: 26.27/100
• National rank: #7249
• State rank: #247 of 620 in IL

Livability — New Baden

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #564
• US rank: #11838

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Baden, IL
• Population (ZIP): 4,396

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,663 people
• By 2030: 37,194 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 35,566 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 32,950 · -12.5%
• By 2075: 26,403 · -29.9%
• By 2100: 19,267 · -48.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.1% · R 75.0% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.0pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+49.0 2012: R+30.0 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.65%
• Current HPI: 158.9631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $80,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,156 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.