2519 Harpers Ferry Rd · Dargan, MD 21782

$44,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1910 0.86 ac lot $39/sqft · 65% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Build Your Vision. Rare opportunity to renovate or build new on a beautiful lot adorned with mature azaleas and flowering plants. A true blank slate for your next project. Sold as-is; bring your contractor and your imagination!

Key facts

• Mature azaleas
• Flowering plants
• 0.86 acre lot

Tags

• MATURE AZALEAS
• FLOWERING PLANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#446 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtion County Public Schools (suburban): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #13 of 24 in MD (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,830 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.93%
• DSCR: 6.16
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,260
• List price: $44,500
• Delta: -65.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $65,956
• Equity at exit: $6,635

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.18×
• Total profit: $151,800
• Equity at exit: $3,848

Cash invested: $12,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21782

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $513/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $1,148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $444

Max offer price $44,500

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,125
• Closing costs: $1,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,500 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,500 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,500 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,500 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,500 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,500 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,500 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,500 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,500 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,500 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $44,500 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,500 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,500 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,500 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,500 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-03-24
    listed $49,500 Active 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Build Your Vision. Rare opportunity to renovate or build new on a beautiful lot adorned with mature azaleas and flowering plants. A true blank slate for your next project. Sold as-is; bring your contractor and your imagination!

17. 2026-03-24
    listed $49,500 Active 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Build Your Vision. Rare opportunity to renovate or build new on a beautiful lot adorned with mature azaleas and flowering plants. A true blank slate for your next project. Sold as-is; bring your contractor and your imagination!

18. 2020-08-07
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed
19. 2020-05-19
    listed $35,000 Active
20. 2019-01-09
    historical
21. 2018-08-09
    price $22,900
22. 2018-04-27
    price $24,900
23. 2017-11-21
    listed $27,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $513 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $513 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,493
• − Property taxes: −$513
• − Insurance: −$892
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,821
• − Management: −$1,821
• − Depreciation: −$1,295
• Taxable income: $13,926
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,342
• After-tax cash flow: $10,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtion County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400660
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $54,784
• Composite: 22.87/100
• National rank: #8007
• State rank: #13 of 24 in MD

Livability — Dargan

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #25254

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,056

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 151,614 people
• By 2030: 151,455 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 150,097 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 148,193 · -2.3%
• By 2075: 146,581 · -3.3%
• By 2100: 138,025 · -9.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 5% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.3% · R 60.4% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.9pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+20.9 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+12.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.45%
• Current HPI: 278.6603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+77.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $49,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $49,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-07 Sold (MLS) $35,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-19 Listed $35,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-01-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-09 Price Changed $22,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-27 Price Changed $24,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-11-21 Listed $27,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $513 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.