765 Grove St · Houston, TX 77020

$390,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2017 1,716 sqft lot Est $370k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 3-bedroom, 3.5-bath townhome offering approximately 1,968 square feet of living space in Houston's rapidly growing East End area. Built in 2017, this three-story home features an open-concept layout with a spacious kitchen, large center island, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet storage. Interior finishes include wood, tile, and carpet flooring, high ceilings, and a neutral color palette throughout. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet and ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Additional highlights include an attached 2-car garage, central air and heat, and convenient access to Downtown Houston, major freeways, dining, entertainment, and neighborhood amenities. Locat

Key facts

• Large center island
• Walk-in closet
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-827 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (37.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcreynolds Middle (math 10% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,602 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 398 students, 98% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,613/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 969% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 20% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,888 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.09%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $369,984
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3209 Baer St Unit A	0.02mi	3/3.5	1,990 (+1%)	1mo	$464,900	$234	96
3209 Baer St Unit B	0.02mi	3/3.5	1,996 (+1%)	1mo	$464,900	$233	96
3415 Stonewall St	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,969 (+0%)	1mo	$369,000	$187	79
3409 Stonewall St	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,969 (+0%)	1mo	$349,900	$178	78
3306 Cline St	0.13mi	3/3.5	2,154 (+10%)	1mo	$390,000	$181	77
2814 Mills St	0.68mi	3/3.5	1,972 (+0%)	1mo	$389,900	$198	67
2812 Mills St	0.67mi	3/3.5	1,972 (+0%)	1mo	$369,900	$188	67
2706 Fox St	0.71mi	3/3.5	2,012 (+2%)	1mo	$499,900	$248	62
2808 Mills St	0.67mi	3/3.5	2,039 (+4%)	1mo	$359,000	$176	62
2804 Mills St	0.68mi	3/3.5	2,039 (+4%)	1mo	$379,000	$186	61
3605 New Orleans St	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,884 (-4%)	1mo	$374,900	$199	58
2321 Ann St	0.70mi	3/3.0	2,197 (+12%)	1mo	$339,000	$154	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $163,267
• Equity at exit: $351,343

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $529,767
• Equity at exit: $757,684

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,613 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$684 /mo · $8,208/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-827

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,660

Max offer price $243,888

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-606	-5% $-717	+0% $-827	+5% $-937	+10% $-1,048
Rent	-10% $-1,034	-5% $-930	+0% $-827	+5% $-724	+10% $-621
Rate	-1.0pp $-631	-0.5pp $-728	base $-827	+0.5pp $-928	+1.0pp $-1,031

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	44d	1	0.10mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	44d	1	0.11mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	44d	1	0.13mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	8d	1	0.16mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$2,922	$1.47	0d	1	0.20mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.33mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	8d	1	0.34mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	8d	1	0.45mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	44d	1	0.45mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	0.48mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.51mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,593	$1.59	6d	1	0.52mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	970	$3,420	$3.52	0d	69	0.58mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,045	$1.66	12d	1	0.78mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,056	$1.66	0d	1	0.78mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,005	$1.63	0d	1	0.78mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$3,056	$1.66	13d	1	0.78mi
1222 Upton St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2055	$2,600	$1.27	44d	1	0.79mi
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.81mi
2315 Navigation Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	943	$3,500	$3.71	0d	62	0.86mi
2404 Navigation Blvd Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,321	$1.77	0d	1	0.86mi
2404 Navigation Blvd Unit 2441 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,280	$1.74	0d	1	0.86mi
2404 Navigation Blvd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,296	$1.75	8d	1	0.86mi
2404 Navigation Blvd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,296	$1.75	6d	1	0.86mi
2414 East Dr Unit Canal St unit Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2063	$2,950	$1.43	8d	1	0.92mi
15 N Chenevert St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1351	$4,000	$2.96	0d	16	1.07mi
4706 Hershe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2283	$3,300	$1.45	44d	1	1.09mi
1250 Leona St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,990	$2.25	0d	14	1.09mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	21d	1	1.16mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	21d	1	1.16mi
6 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,453	$1.97	44d	1	1.32mi
6 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,453	$1.97	21d	1	1.32mi
2 Jenkins St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,250	$1.81	44d	1	1.36mi
500 Crawford St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$2,315	$2.23	44d	32	1.40mi
915 Franklin St Unit 312202 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1398	$1,987	$1.42	44d	1	1.43mi
915 Franklin St Unit ID51118 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1342	$2,000	$1.49	44d	1	1.43mi
5217 Noble St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,750	$1.45	44d	1	1.45mi
201 Main St Unit 12258 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1308	$2,250	$1.72	44d	1	1.46mi
1475 Texas Ave Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1233	$2,870	$2.33	0d	1	1.46mi
1475 Texas Ave Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1233	$2,840	$2.30	8d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $390,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $390,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,208 · $684/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,208 · $684/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,361
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$8,208
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,509
• − Management: −$2,509
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$17,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,082
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Coming Soon $390,000 HARMLS
• 2019-09-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-08-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-08-14 Listed $324,999 HARMLS
• 2019-08-13 Price Changed $324,999 HARMLS
• 2019-06-06 Price Changed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-03 Price Changed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-09 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2017-12-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-12-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-11-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-11-13 Price Changed $329,000 HARMLS
• 2017-11-13 Price Changed $334,900 HARMLS
• 2017-09-18 Price Changed $339,000 HARMLS
• 2017-07-04 Listed $349,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+23.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,208 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.