4718 Trafford Rd · Holiday, FL 34690

$220,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1963 Est $247k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4718 Trafford Rd 3 Bedrooms, 1 Bathroom. Newly remodeled Very spacious bedrooms . Newer Roof Newer AC. Tile throughout. On septic and well can be hook up to city water if needed Property is Fenced in. NO HOA fees or Deed Restrictions. No flood insurance needed. Close to everything dining and schools. Open up to Offers! For sale by owner!

Key facts

• Newer ac
• Septic and well
• Newer roof

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER AC
• FENCED IN
• SEPTIC AND WELL
• HOOK UP TO CITY WATER
• CLOSE TO DINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1963
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1286

Interior

• Interior features: Orangewood Village subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.5% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunray Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 382 students, 92% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $220k implies a 341% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,870 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,912
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4814 Foothill Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,270 (-1%)	6mo	$243,600	$192	79
2826 Raven Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,310 (+2%)	1mo	$190,000	$145	63
4326 Fern Glen St	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,128 (-12%)	1mo	$204,000	$181	56
4731 Aegean Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (-14%)	3mo	$222,000	$201	55
2726 Featherstone Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-4%)	3mo	$181,000	$147	55
4140 Castlewood Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-4%)	5mo	$170,000	$138	54
2924 Puma Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,212 (-6%)	3mo	$274,900	$227	47
5130 Victoria Ln	0.47mi	2/3.0	1,458 (+13%)	1mo	$279,900	$192	47
1846 Abacus Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (-11%)	4mo	$200,000	$175	45
2135 Erin Dr	0.61mi	2/1.5	1,116 (-13%)	4mo	$215,000	$193	44
2619 Albion St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+6%)	4mo	$145,000	$106	42
1843 Berg Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-14%)	6mo	$240,000	$218	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-34,497
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-42,222
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $608/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,641

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $163	+0% $101	+5% $39	+10% $-23
Rent	-10% $-39	-5% $31	+0% $101	+5% $171	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $157	base $101	+0.5pp $44	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	7d	1	0.13mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	26d	1	0.13mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	19d	1	0.14mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	7d	1	0.21mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	3d	1	0.22mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	7d	1	0.26mi
2620 Cheval Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,699	$1.06	7d	1	0.27mi
2412 Arcadia Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1360	$1,603	$1.18	26d	1	0.27mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,595	$1.32	0d	1	0.32mi
2555 Charlan Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,500	$1.53	26d	1	0.37mi
2555 Charlan Ct Unit Main Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,301	$1.39	26d	1	0.37mi
2578 Charlan Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	26d	1	0.40mi
5223 Forum Blvd Holiday, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$1,990	$1.29	19d	1	0.49mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	22d	1	0.53mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	1d	7	0.59mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	4d	13	0.59mi
4036 Sunray Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,350	$1.28	26d	1	0.73mi
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	7d	1	0.83mi
3162 Victoria Inlet Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,375	$1.46	7d	1	0.89mi
3749 Beechwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,623	$1.60	1d	1	0.96mi
3742 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,800	$1.92	26d	1	0.96mi
3252 Peterborough St Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,631	$1.26	7d	1	0.97mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	26d	1	0.99mi
3301 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,100	$1.57	19d	1	1.03mi
3711 Redwood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	1d	1	1.03mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	7d	1	1.03mi
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	26d	1	1.05mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	7d	1	1.13mi
3600 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,800	$1.11	26d	1	1.14mi
1254 Firecreek Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	3d	1	1.14mi
4836 Flora Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,445	$1.30	26d	1	1.17mi
3536 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	26d	1	1.18mi
3444 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	26d	1	1.18mi
5637 Golden Nugget Dr Holiday, FL	1.0	1.5	1200	$1,375	$1.15	26d	1	1.21mi
3439 Clydesdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	968	$1,395	$1.44	7d	1	1.22mi
3513 Trask Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,249	$1.25	26d	1	1.22mi
3521 Allandale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	26d	1	1.23mi
3446 Cincinnati Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,906	$1.57	7d	1	1.26mi
3549 Westminister Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,350	$1.56	26d	1	1.26mi
5723 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1568	$1,450	$0.92	13d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 350-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $220,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $608 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,826 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,218/yr (+$101/mo · 200.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$608
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,603
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$625
• After-tax cash flow: $1,839/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1000.0% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $220,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-02-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-23 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-22 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-25 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-02 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-30 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-24 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-12 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-27 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-15 Price Changed $258,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-02 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-27 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-12 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-07 Price Changed $267,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-30 Price Changed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-24 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-27 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 1998-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $608 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.