10735 Cobblecreek Way · Sienna, TX 77459

$309,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2004 3,624 sqft lot $144/sqft · 8% below area Est $337k · 8% under $132/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming & spacious home located steps from greenbelt trail. If you've been searching for a 5 bedroom home at a great price, check it out! No carpet down - owner has upgraded main living areas w/ tile & primary suite has gleaming wood laminates. Owner's retreat has double sinks, soaking tub + separate glass-enclosed shower. The largest floor plan in this section of Sienna, this home offers plenty of space & lots of closets. Kitchen features gas range & island for excellent entertaining space. Family room has cozy gas fireplace in the corner & big picture windows overlooking the pretty backyard. Up the wood laminate stairs, you'll find a gigantic game room + 4 big bedrooms (no carpet up, except 1 room)! Oversized laundry w/ more storage possibilities. Owner recently added Nest thermostats, NEW roof (2022), fence. No front neighbors, plenty of guest parking in front. Miles of jogging trails & water parks are walkable from this quiet neighborhood. Zoned to excellent Fort Bend ISD schools!

Key facts

• No front neighbors
• Gas range
• Corner fireplace

Tags

• SCENIC GREENBELT TRAIL
• GAS RANGE
• CORNER FIREPLACE
• LARGE GAME ROOM
• OVERSIZED UTILITY ROOM
• NO FRONT NEIGHBORS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Sienna association; Annual association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, community pool, fitness center, playground, park, trails, tennis courts, pickleball, picnic area, dog park, and golf; Association fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 garage spaces; Garage door opener; Alley access
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2004; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Concrete road access
• Construction: Cement siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Fence (back yard); Pond on lot; Near golf course; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14 x 14); Four additional bedrooms on second floor (10 x 11; 10 x 11; 10 x 12; 11 x 12)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom has a bath; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Vanity; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room on second floor (5 x 9)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sienna Crossing El (math 72% / reading 75%, grade A, #95 of 4,322 statewide, top 2%, 937 students, 18% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 18% FRL vs 35% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Fort Bend ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,087 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.31%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,594
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: -8.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3907 Townpark Ln	0.17mi	5/2.5	2,072 (-4%)	12mo	$330,000	$159	74
10946 Tattershall Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,142 (-0%)	6mo	$350,000	$163	73
2703 Mckeever Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,396 (+11%)	12mo	$800,000	$334	51
10223 Garden Crossing Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,042 (-5%)	11mo	$425,000	$208	50
3915 Chestnut Bnd	0.25mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,373 (+10%)	23mo	$349,900	$147	45
3427 Velasco Ct	0.68mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,360 (+10%)	1mo	$329,000	$139	44
10311 Village Lake Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,465 (+15%)	19mo	$389,000	$158	31
3210 Oak Bough	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,387 (+11%)	12mo	$369,000	$155	30
11423 English Rose Trl	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,471 (+15%)	9mo	$385,000	$156	30
3615 Hill Family Ln	0.54mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,465 (+15%)	20mo	$325,000	$132	27
3511 Bahia Ct	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,472 (+15%)	23mo	$460,000	$186	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-60,003
• Equity at exit: $64,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-91,640
• Equity at exit: $60,026

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$582 /mo · $6,987/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,118

Max offer price $254,087

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-223	+0% $-311	+5% $-398	+10% $-486
Rent	-10% $-526	-5% $-418	+0% $-311	+5% $-203	+10% $-96
Rate	-1.0pp $-155	-0.5pp $-232	base $-311	+0.5pp $-391	+1.0pp $-472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11306 English Rose Trl Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$2,450	$1.03	22d	1	0.54mi
2644 Blue Abbot Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	2435	$2,450	$1.01	45d	1	1.19mi
2703 Facet Creek Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	2099	$2,226	$1.06	0d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $309,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $309,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    listed $309,000 Active 906-char remark
15. 2022-06-29
    soldstatus
16. 2022-06-23
    soldstatus Sold 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    Charming & spacious home located steps from greenbelt trail. If you've been searching for a 5 bedroom home at a great price, check it out! No carpet down - owner has upgraded main living areas w/ tile & primary suite has gleaming wood laminates. Owner's retreat has double sinks, soaking tub + separate glass-enclosed shower. The largest floor plan in this section of Sienna, this home offers plenty of space & lots of closets. Kitchen features gas range & island for excellent entertaining space. Family room has cozy gas fireplace in the corner & big picture windows overlooking the pretty backyard. Up the wood laminate stairs, you'll find a gigantic game room + 4 big bedrooms (no carpet up, except 1 room)! Oversized laundry w/ more storage possibilities. Owner recently added Nest thermostats, NEW roof (2022), fence. No front neighbors, plenty of guest parking in front. Miles of jogging trails & water parks are walkable from this quiet neighborhood. Zoned to excellent Fort Bend ISD schools!

17. 2022-06-05
    status Pending 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    Charming & spacious home located steps from greenbelt trail. If you've been searching for a 5 bedroom home at a great price, check it out! No carpet down - owner has upgraded main living areas w/ tile & primary suite has gleaming wood laminates. Owner's retreat has double sinks, soaking tub + separate glass-enclosed shower. The largest floor plan in this section of Sienna, this home offers plenty of space & lots of closets. Kitchen features gas range & island for excellent entertaining space. Family room has cozy gas fireplace in the corner & big picture windows overlooking the pretty backyard. Up the wood laminate stairs, you'll find a gigantic game room + 4 big bedrooms (no carpet up, except 1 room)! Oversized laundry w/ more storage possibilities. Owner recently added Nest thermostats, NEW roof (2022), fence. No front neighbors, plenty of guest parking in front. Miles of jogging trails & water parks are walkable from this quiet neighborhood. Zoned to excellent Fort Bend ISD schools!

18. 2022-06-01
    status Option Pending 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    Charming & spacious home located steps from greenbelt trail. If you've been searching for a 5 bedroom home at a great price, check it out! No carpet down - owner has upgraded main living areas w/ tile & primary suite has gleaming wood laminates. Owner's retreat has double sinks, soaking tub + separate glass-enclosed shower. The largest floor plan in this section of Sienna, this home offers plenty of space & lots of closets. Kitchen features gas range & island for excellent entertaining space. Family room has cozy gas fireplace in the corner & big picture windows overlooking the pretty backyard. Up the wood laminate stairs, you'll find a gigantic game room + 4 big bedrooms (no carpet up, except 1 room)! Oversized laundry w/ more storage possibilities. Owner recently added Nest thermostats, NEW roof (2022), fence. No front neighbors, plenty of guest parking in front. Miles of jogging trails & water parks are walkable from this quiet neighborhood. Zoned to excellent Fort Bend ISD schools!

19. 2022-05-23
    listed $325,000 Active 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    Charming & spacious home located steps from greenbelt trail. If you've been searching for a 5 bedroom home at a great price, check it out! No carpet down - owner has upgraded main living areas w/ tile & primary suite has gleaming wood laminates. Owner's retreat has double sinks, soaking tub + separate glass-enclosed shower. The largest floor plan in this section of Sienna, this home offers plenty of space & lots of closets. Kitchen features gas range & island for excellent entertaining space. Family room has cozy gas fireplace in the corner & big picture windows overlooking the pretty backyard. Up the wood laminate stairs, you'll find a gigantic game room + 4 big bedrooms (no carpet up, except 1 room)! Oversized laundry w/ more storage possibilities. Owner recently added Nest thermostats, NEW roof (2022), fence. No front neighbors, plenty of guest parking in front. Miles of jogging trails & water parks are walkable from this quiet neighborhood. Zoned to excellent Fort Bend ISD schools!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,987 · $582/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,987 · $582/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$6,987
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,616
• − Management: −$2,616
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$8,948
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,148
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $309,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-05-23 Listed $325,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,987 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.