246 Road 590108 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$147,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,417 sqft · SingleFamily · 233 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $104/sqft · 14% below area Est $172k · 14% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 24152285 - Built by NHC - May 2026 completion! ~ Model 1417 B1 - The Cherokee Plan from our Celebration Series offers a thoughtfully designed two-story layout that balances open main level living with well-separated private spaces upstairs. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,417 square feet of well-planned living space, this home is designed for comfort, functionality, and everyday ease. The main level welcomes you with a covered front porch and foyer, leading into a hallway that opens to the kitchen, dining, and family room. The kitchen features an island with breakfast bar seating and generous counter space, opening naturally to the dining and family room for everyday living and entertaining. A patio door off the living area provides easy access to outdoor enjoyment, while a conveniently located half bath completes the main level. Upstairs, the layout is designed for privacy and balance. The primary suite is located on one end of the home.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Patio door
• Private bath

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• BREAKFAST BAR SEATING
• PATIO DOOR
• PRIVATE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $148k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1804 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $130,231 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.76%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,495
• List price: $147,990
• Delta: -14.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
234 Road 590108	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,417 (0%)	0mo	$166,990	$118	99
673 Maria Elena Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-0%)	2mo	$180,991	$128	84
338 Road 5840 Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-5%)	2mo	$172,000	$127	67
338 Lucia Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-15%)	0mo	$168,990	$140	64
365 Lucia Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-15%)	1mo	$174,990	$145	61
381 Lucia Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-15%)	3mo	$172,990	$143	60
378 Lucia Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-15%)	3mo	$174,990	$145	60
662 Road 5846	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,277 (-10%)	8mo	$255,000	$200	43
735 Road 5714	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,600 (+13%)	18mo	$185,990	$116	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,011
• Equity at exit: $22,066

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $49,444
• Equity at exit: $12,795

Cash invested: $41,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 23.3 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $172,000 ($128/sqft)
• Median days on market: 142 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1804
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$185 /mo · $2,220/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,307

Max offer price $147,990

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $543	-5% $492	+0% $441	+5% $389	+10% $338
Rent	-10% $293	-5% $367	+0% $441	+5% $514	+10% $588
Rate	-1.0pp $515	-0.5pp $478	base $441	+0.5pp $402	+1.0pp $363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,998
• Closing costs: $4,440
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,900	$1.19	25d	1	0.09mi
707 Road 5819 Unit NA Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	0d	1	0.59mi
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	32d	1	0.76mi
1683 County Road 3556 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1673	$1,595	$0.95	9d	1	0.89mi
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	64d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $147,990 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $147,990 Active 231 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $147,990 Active 230 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $147,990 Active 229 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $147,990 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $147,990 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $147,990 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $147,990 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $149,490 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $149,490 Active 220 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $149,490 Active 218 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $149,490 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $149,490 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $149,490 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $149,490 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $149,490 Active 212 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $149,490 Active 211 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $149,490 Active 210 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $149,490 Active 209 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $149,490 Active 208 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $149,490 Active 207 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $149,490 Active 206 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $149,490 Active 205 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $149,490 Active 204 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    price $149,490 Active 203 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $159,990 Active 203 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $159,990 Active 201 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $159,990 Active 200 DOM
29. 2026-07-06
    days on market $159,990 Active 199 DOM
30. 2026-07-05
    days on market $159,990 Active 198 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $159,990 Active 197 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $159,990 Active 196 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $159,990 Active 195 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $159,990 Active 194 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $159,990 Active 193 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $159,990 Active 192 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $159,990 Active 191 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on market $159,990 Active 188 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $162,990 Active 186 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $162,990 Active 185 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $162,990 Active 182 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    price $162,990 Active 181 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $163,990 Active 181 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $163,990 Active 180 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $163,990 Active 179 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $163,990 Active 177 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $163,990 Active 173 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $163,990 Active 172 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $163,990 Active 171 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $163,990 Active 168 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,290
• − Property taxes: −$2,220
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,305
• Taxable income: $3,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$750
• After-tax cash flow: $4,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-designed layout and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract tenants and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Lighting — Upgrading lighting can improve the home's ambiance and increase its appeal to buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southside El F TX #3,759/4,322 Nat'l #34,688/41,679 Middle Santa Fe Middle High Cleveland H S F TX #1,077/1,632 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $169,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $172,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $182,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $187,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $197,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $199,989 HARMLS