2508 Kimberly Dawn Dr · Conroe, TX 77304

$269,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,067 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 2005 6,002 sqft lot $130/sqft · 17% below area Est $325k · 17% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2508 Kimberly Dawn Dr., located in the heart of Canyon Creek—one of Conroe’s most charming and quiet neighborhoods. This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a warm, inviting layout with a spacious living area, elegant shutters, and a well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinetry and a cozy dining space. The primary suite offers a private bath and generous closet space. Enjoy a covered back patio and a private backyard with a mature olive tree, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and schools, with easy access to I-45, Loop 336, The Woodlands, Lake Conroe, and Conroe Regional Medical Center. Zoned to Conroe ISD.

Key facts

• Private bath
• Covered back patio
• 6,002 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED BACK PATIO
• PRIVATE BATH
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 746 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,853 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,783
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -17.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2609 Kimberly Dawn Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	2,149 (+4%)	9mo	$375,000	$174	79
2504 Amy Lee Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,988 (-4%)	12mo	$329,000	$165	79
2610 Kimberly Dawn Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,238 (+8%)	4mo	$350,000	$156	78
1704 Cindy Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	2,158 (+4%)	4mo	$335,000	$155	76
2500 Angela Faye Way	0.07mi	3/2.0	2,198 (+6%)	13mo	$342,700	$156	73
1792 Canyon Lake Creek Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,210 (+7%)	11mo	$360,000	$163	72
2024 Elkington Cir	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,058 (-0%)	4mo	$273,000	$133	70
1951 Parnevik Pl	0.57mi	3/2.5	2,142 (+4%)	2mo	$300,000	$140	66
2516 Amy Lee Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,756 (-15%)	9mo	$329,000	$187	62
2136 Moss Creek Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,813 (-12%)	0mo	$316,999	$175	42
2204 Golden Laurel Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,886 (-9%)	9mo	$323,500	$172	41
2224 Buck Hollow Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,800 (-13%)	13mo	$299,900	$167	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-73,560
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-118,392
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77304

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 746
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,144 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$524 /mo · $6,294/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,618

Max offer price $202,853

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1701 Cindy Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,100	$1.19	3d	1	0.26mi
2023 Elkington Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	2890	$2,881	$1.00	1d	1	0.54mi
2502 N Yorkchase Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	2591	$2,500	$0.96	18d	1	0.65mi
2342 Sugar Crest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	2077	$2,061	$0.99	7d	1	0.83mi
2400 Montgomery Park Blvd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1265	$2,784	$2.20	1d	51	1.03mi
2210 Westview Blvd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1145	$1,599	$1.40	1d	5	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $269,000 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,900 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 143 DOM
14. 2026-02-23
    price $279,900 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Welcome to 2508 Kimberly Dawn Dr., located in the heart of Canyon Creek—one of Conroe’s most charming and quiet neighborhoods. This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a warm, inviting layout with a spacious living area, elegant shutters, and a well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinetry and a cozy dining space. The primary suite offers a private bath and generous closet space. Enjoy a covered back patio and a private backyard with a mature olive tree, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and schools, with easy access to I-45, Loop 336, The Woodlands, Lake Conroe, and Conroe Regional Medical Center. Zoned to Conroe ISD.

15. 2026-01-08
    listed $289,900 Active 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Welcome to 2508 Kimberly Dawn Dr., located in the heart of Canyon Creek—one of Conroe’s most charming and quiet neighborhoods. This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a warm, inviting layout with a spacious living area, elegant shutters, and a well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinetry and a cozy dining space. The primary suite offers a private bath and generous closet space. Enjoy a covered back patio and a private backyard with a mature olive tree, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and schools, with easy access to I-45, Loop 336, The Woodlands, Lake Conroe, and Conroe Regional Medical Center. Zoned to Conroe ISD.

16. 2025-11-19
    historical
17. 2025-08-15
    price $299,000
18. 2025-06-27
    price $310,000
19. 2025-05-14
    listed $319,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,294 · $524/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,294 · $524/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$6,294
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$9,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,201
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,225
• Household income: $80,425
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2233.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.02%
• Current HPI: 209.516
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed $319,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,294 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.