614 Road 5203 · Dayton, TX 77327

$149,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 0.32 ac lot $90/sqft · 23% below area Est $194k · 23% under ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2023

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2023; Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Subdivision lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second level) — approx. 14 x 11; Bedroom (Second level) — approx. 10 x 9; Bedroom (Second level) — approx. 10 x 9
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $149k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Santa Fe El (919 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,954
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -12.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 County Road 5201	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,647 (0%)	3mo	$160,000	$97	93
845 Road 5203	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+0%)	6mo	$255,000	$155	80
805 Road 5203	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+6%)	2mo	$285,000	$163	70
625 Road 5203	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,462 (-11%)	4mo	$155,000	$106	69
874 Road 5203	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+6%)	4mo	$259,900	$149	67
1074 Road 5203	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-5%)	18mo	$218,000	$139	52
864 Road 5203	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+6%)	22mo	$309,990	$177	52
392 Road 5201	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-7%)	21mo	$200,000	$130	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,902
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $17,400
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,062/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,496

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $252	+0% $209	+5% $167	+10% $125
Rent	-10% $70	-5% $140	+0% $209	+5% $279	+10% $348
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $247	base $209	+0.5pp $171	+1.0pp $131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
824 Road 5203 Cleveland, TX	3.0	3.5	1920	$2,150	$1.12	0d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on marketlisting id $149,000 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-05-11
    price $195,900 814-char remark
12. 2026-04-09
    listed $215,900 Active 814-char remark
13. 2023-08-18
    soldstatus Sold 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

14. 2023-07-11
    status Pending 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

15. 2023-04-07
    price $185,000 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2023-03-27
    price $190,990 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2023-03-25
    status Active 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2023-02-09
    status Pending 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

19. 2023-01-07
    price $185,000 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

20. 2023-01-07
    price $225,000 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

21. 2022-12-23
    price $185,000 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

22. 2022-12-13
    price $190,000 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

23. 2022-12-01
    price $195,000 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

24. 2022-11-08
    price $185,000 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

25. 2022-11-03
    price $200,000 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

26. 2022-08-09
    listed $230,000 Active 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,062 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,062 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$4,062
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $264
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$63
• After-tax cash flow: $2,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home in Cleveland, TX is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 1,647 sq/ft of functional living space. The home is move-in ready with minimal repairs and maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replacing blinds with new, stylish ones — Improves natural light and enhances curb appeal
• Both Upgrading kitchen faucet and sink — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replacing blinds with new, stylish ones — Improves natural light and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen faucet and sink — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $195,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $215,900 HARMLS
• 2023-08-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-07-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-07 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-27 Price Changed $190,990 HARMLS
• 2023-03-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-02-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-01-07 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-07 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-23 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-13 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-01 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-08 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-03 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-09 Listed $230,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+37.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,062 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.