614 Road 5203 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$139,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 0.32 ac lot Garage $84/sqft · 28% below area Est $194k · 28% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 40% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $139k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Santa Fe El (919 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1804 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,187
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -28.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 County Road 5201	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,647 (0%)	5mo	$160,000	$97	92
845 Road 5203	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+0%)	8mo	$255,000	$155	79
805 Road 5203	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+6%)	4mo	$285,000	$163	69
625 Road 5203	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,462 (-11%)	6mo	$155,000	$106	68
874 Road 5203	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+6%)	5mo	$259,900	$149	65
1215 Road 5203	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	1mo	$274,500	$161	62
1074 Road 5203	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-5%)	20mo	$218,000	$139	50
864 Road 5203	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+6%)	24mo	$309,990	$177	50
392 Road 5201	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-7%)	23mo	$200,000	$130	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,113
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $27,914
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $229,495 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 103 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -21.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1804
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,062/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,437

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $314	+0% $274	+5% $235	+10% $196
Rent	-10% $133	-5% $204	+0% $274	+5% $345	+10% $415
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $310	base $274	+0.5pp $238	+1.0pp $202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
824 Road 5203 Cleveland, TX	3.0	3.5	1920	$2,150	$1.12	0d	1	0.16mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Houston El Norte POA with an annual fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyEntry level: First floor living areas and second floor bedrooms
• Construction: Built in 2023Cement and wood sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yardConcrete road accessLocated in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 14 x 11)Second bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 9)Third bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 9)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen islandKitchen/family room comboTub with showerCeiling fans

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $139,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $139,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $139,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $139,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $139,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $139,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $139,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $139,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $139,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $139,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $139,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $139,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $139,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $139,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $139,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $139,000 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $149,000 Active 28 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $149,000 Active 27 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $149,000 Active 26 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $149,000 Active 25 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $149,000 Active 24 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $149,000 Active 23 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $149,000 Active 22 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $149,000 Active 21 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 19 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    status $149,000 Active 18 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $149,000 Pending 18 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $149,000 Pending 17 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $149,000 Pending 16 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $149,000 Pending 15 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $149,000 Pending 14 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $149,000 Pending 13 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    statusdays on market $149,000 Pending 12 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $149,000 Active 11 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $149,000 Active 9 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $149,000 Active 7 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $149,000 Active 6 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $149,000 Active 3 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $149,000 Active 2 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on marketlisting id $149,000 Active 1 DOM
42. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 59 DOM
43. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 56 DOM
44. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 55 DOM
45. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 54 DOM
46. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 53 DOM
47. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 52 DOM
48. 2026-05-11
    price $195,900 814-char remark
49. 2026-04-09
    listed $215,900 Active 814-char remark
50. 2023-08-18
    soldstatus Sold 557-char remark

    Show marketing remark (557 chars)

    The 'Canelo B' from the Welton Collection by Lennar! This two-story home offers everything you need to live a comfortable lifestyle, and is located on a LARGE HOMESITE! An open concept living area is in the back of the first floor with a modern kitchen and family room. Upstairs, two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, perfect for kids or a home office. The owner’s suite is tucked into the back with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,062 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,062 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$4,062
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $1,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$307
• After-tax cash flow: $2,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,235–$24,705 screening

This two-story home in Cleveland, TX is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and approximately 1,647 sq/ft of functional living space. The home is move-in ready with minimal repairs and maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replacing blinds with new, stylish ones — Improves natural light and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen faucet and sink — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Santa Fe El Middle Santa Fe Middle High Cleveland H S F TX #1,077/1,632 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Houston El Norte POA with an annual fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyEntry level: First floor living areas and second floor bedrooms
• Construction: Built in 2023Cement and wood sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yardConcrete road accessLocated in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 14 x 11)Second bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 9)Third bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 9)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen islandKitchen/family room comboTub with showerCeiling fans

Price history

-39.6% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-17 Price Changed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2026-07-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-07-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-15 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $195,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $215,900 HARMLS
• 2023-08-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-07-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-07 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-27 Price Changed $190,990 HARMLS
• 2023-03-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-02-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-01-07 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-07 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-23 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-13 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-01 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-08 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-03 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-09 Listed $230,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+37.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,062 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.