11 Keating St · Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1954 8,068 sqft lot $176/sqft · at area comps Est $145k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits with this 3 bedroom, 1 bath corner lot home featuring spacious, fenced front and back yards, covered carport parking, and additional storage in the laundry room. This site-built property is full of potential and ready for renovation or customization. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• 8,068 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($852/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.3% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 176 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $150k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,232 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,191
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 3.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
116 Wolfe St	0.13mi	3/1.0	850 (0%)	3mo	$110,000	$129	92
42 Peterson St	0.15mi	3/1.0	850 (0%)	5mo	$172,500	$203	89
59 Peterson St	0.12mi	3/1.0	850 (0%)	14mo	$125,000	$147	83
133 Sherbundy St	0.20mi	3/1.0	850 (0%)	13mo	$103,500	$122	80
26 Peterson St	0.14mi	3/1.0	850 (0%)	18mo	$177,000	$208	79
133 Keating St	0.15mi	3/1.0	850 (0%)	23mo	$140,000	$165	74
90 Steffens St	0.26mi	3/1.0	852 (+0%)	19mo	$165,000	$194	71
307 N 3rd St	0.31mi	3/1.0	922 (+8%)	1mo	$71,000	$77	71
58 Peterson St	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	852 (+0%)	22mo	$160,000	$188	69
117 Keating St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+10%)	13mo	$165,000	$176	61
180 Wolfe St	0.18mi	3/1.0	970 (+14%)	9mo	$185,000	$191	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-23,437
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-28,711
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85635

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,222 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $547/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,132

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $113	+0% $71	+5% $29	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-26	-5% $23	+0% $71	+5% $119	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $109	base $71	+0.5pp $32	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
540 North Ave Unit A Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	44d	1	0.20mi
557 Graham Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	1.0	678	$900	$1.33	44d	1	0.22mi
604 Graham Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$995	$0.89	44d	1	0.25mi
270 W Tacoma St Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$995	$0.89	44d	1	0.33mi
600 Charles Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	637	$1,589	$2.49	2d	15	0.40mi
355 N 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	600	$965	$1.61	2d	9	0.58mi
555 N 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	521	$919	$1.76	44d	1	0.61mi
1125 N 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,391	$1.39	3d	1	0.64mi
499 S Carmichael Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.0	1163	$1,675	$1.44	2d	5	0.71mi
420 Camino Mojado Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,300	$1.16	44d	1	0.77mi
1205 Cottonwood Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,400	$1.33	45d	1	0.82mi
500 S 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	924	$999	$1.08	44d	1	0.93mi
800 N Lenzner Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,070	$1.02	44d	1	1.03mi
800 S Carmichael Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	637	$965	$1.51	2d	16	1.14mi
409 S Lenzner Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	793	$1,695	$2.14	44d	23	1.32mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 372-char remark
6. 2026-06-16
   price $150,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $135,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-03-26
    listed $135,000 Active 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 3 bedroom, 1 bath corner lot home featuring spacious, fenced front and back yards, covered carport parking, and additional storage in the laundry room. This site-built property is full of potential and ready for renovation or customization. Sold as-is.

20. 1997-06-02
    soldstatus $54,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $547 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $990 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$443/yr (+$37/mo · 81.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$547
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$418
• After-tax cash flow: $1,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,193
• Household income: $61,580
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.93%
• Current HPI: 175.5821
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+147.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 1997-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $547 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.