3 Ledgewood Dr · Lakeside Woods, CT 06784

$899,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1972 0.95 ac lot Est $634k · 42% over $128/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Cash flow +3.7/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Turnkey Candlewood Lake Luxury in Deer Run Shores! Experience the perfect blend of modern luxury and lakeside living in this 2900 sq ft contemporary situated on a rare, private 1 acre lot. Extensively expanded and completely renovated in 2022. This 3/4 bedroom 3.5 bath home offers flawless, move in ready sanctuary just a short, flat few minute walk to the community clubhouse, beach, and your own private dock. The main level welcomes you with a bright open foyer and a coat closet, leading into a magnificent new custom kitchen, featuring premium cabinetry, a dedicated keeping room pantry, gleaming hardwood floors, quartz counters and new appliances. The main living room serves as an elegant g

Key facts

• 0.95 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1972

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Annual HOA fee approximately $1,541; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, lake/beach access and pool service

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well; Septic system; Domestic hot water; Heat pump and hot air heating (propane fuel, above-ground tank)
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Vinyl siding; Built with a living area of approximately 1458
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered deck; Shed; Garden area; Professionally landscaped, rolling lot; Walk-to-water access, dock or mooring, and beach rights

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Wall oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Auto garage door opener; Two fireplaces; Full, fully finished basement with garage access; Attic with pull-down stairs; Total of 9 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $899k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $434k (51.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $377k (58.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $377k (58.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sherman School District (rural): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #87 of 192 in CT (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sherman School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #137 of 553 statewide, top 28%, 264 students, 2% FRL) — zoned schools at 2% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $96k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $90k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$155k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($886k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $668k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $377,032 (58.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.55%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 19.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $634,230
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Ledgewood Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,458 (0%)	22mo	$531,500	$365	73
8 Ledgewood Dr	0.12mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,542 (+6%)	6mo	$1,300,000	$843	70
6 Candleview Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,344 (-8%)	14mo	$584,000	$435	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $321,589
• Equity at exit: $809,890

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $1,078,298
• Equity at exit: $1,746,559

Cash invested: $251,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06784

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 19.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,770 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,738/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$128
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$792
• Net cashflow: $-2,633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,104

Max offer price $433,813

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $224,750
• Closing costs: $26,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $128 · $1,536/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $899,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $899,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $899,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $899,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $899,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $899,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $899,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $899,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $899,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $899,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $899,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,738 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,988 · $999/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,250/yr (+$604/mo · 153.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,358
• − Property taxes: −$4,738
• − Insurance: −$4,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,620
• − Management: −$3,620
• − HOA: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$26,153
• Taxable loss: −$49,275
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,826
• After-tax cash flow: $-19,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherman School District
• NCES district ID: 0904080
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $105,552
• Composite: 56.01/100
• National rank: #2563
• State rank: #87 of 192 in CT

Livability — Lakeside Woods

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside Woods, CT
• Population (ZIP): 3,525

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.90%
• Current HPI: 284.0569
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+100.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $899,000 Smart MLS
• 2023-06-13 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2023-01-16 Listed $700,000 Smart MLS
• 2022-07-08 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2022-06-21 Listed $650,000 Smart MLS
• 2022-04-01 Sold (MLS) $668,000 Smart MLS
• 2022-02-21 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2022-02-18 Listed $649,000 Smart MLS
• 2015-12-18 Sold (MLS) $368,500 Smart MLS
• 2015-09-29 Listed $395,000 Smart MLS
• 2015-09-08 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2015-04-10 Listed $399,000 Smart MLS
• 2004-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $420,000 Public Records
• 2004-12-20 Sold (MLS) $420,000 Smart MLS
• 2004-08-11 Listed $449,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $4,738 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.