518 Braelyn St · Pioneer, FL 33935

$284,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Land · 178 Days on market

Built 2025 0.31 ac lot ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this brand-new construction offering 1,356 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space situated on an oversized lot in a rapidly growing area. Enjoy the perfect blend of rural tranquility and modern comfort, with plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Conveniently located less than two hours from Florida’s East Coast, this property offers easy access to beaches, dining, and entertainment while still providing the privacy and serenity of country living. A wonderful opportunity to own new construction in an up-and-coming location.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: New construction; Single-level entry
• Construction: Block construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Porch; Open porch; Room for a pool; Quarter- to half-acre lot; Faces northwest

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor entry; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#727 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hendry (town): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #65 of 73 in FL (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 942 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 557 units permitted in Hendry County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,268/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hendry County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,789 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $143,909
• Equity at exit: $256,660

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $432,735
• Equity at exit: $553,498

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33935

• Home prices YoY: 16.3%
• Active inventory: 942
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,274/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,492

Max offer price $259,252

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-79	+0% $-177	+5% $-276	+10% $-374
Rent	-10% $-356	-5% $-267	+0% $-177	+5% $-88	+10% $2
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-105	base $-177	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
513 Ella Jean Pl Labelle, FL	4.0	2.0	1485	$2,000	$1.35	25d	1	0.28mi
634 Royce Rd Labelle, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$2,100	$1.44	15d	1	0.35mi
1305 Andover Dr Labelle, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,400	$1.37	25d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $284,900 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,900 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $284,900 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,900 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,900 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,900 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,900 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    price $289,900

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Welcome to this brand-new construction offering 1,356 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space situated on an oversized lot in a rapidly growing area. Enjoy the perfect blend of rural tranquility and modern comfort, with plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Conveniently located less than two hours from Florida’s East Coast, this property offers easy access to beaches, dining, and entertainment while still providing the privacy and serenity of country living. A wonderful opportunity to own new construction in an up-and-coming location.

16. 2026-04-13
    price $289,900 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Welcome to this brand-new construction offering 1,356 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space situated on an oversized lot in a rapidly growing area. Enjoy the perfect blend of rural tranquility and modern comfort, with plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Conveniently located less than two hours from Florida’s East Coast, this property offers easy access to beaches, dining, and entertainment while still providing the privacy and serenity of country living. A wonderful opportunity to own new construction in an up-and-coming location.

17. 2026-03-09
    price $294,900
18. 2026-03-08
    price $294,900 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Welcome to this brand-new construction offering 1,356 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space situated on an oversized lot in a rapidly growing area. Enjoy the perfect blend of rural tranquility and modern comfort, with plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Conveniently located less than two hours from Florida’s East Coast, this property offers easy access to beaches, dining, and entertainment while still providing the privacy and serenity of country living. A wonderful opportunity to own new construction in an up-and-coming location.

19. 2026-02-03
    listed $297,900 Active
20. 2025-12-22
    listed $297,900 Active 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Welcome to this brand-new construction offering 1,356 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space situated on an oversized lot in a rapidly growing area. Enjoy the perfect blend of rural tranquility and modern comfort, with plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Conveniently located less than two hours from Florida’s East Coast, this property offers easy access to beaches, dining, and entertainment while still providing the privacy and serenity of country living. A wonderful opportunity to own new construction in an up-and-coming location.

21. 2003-05-30
    soldstatus $550,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$4,274
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,177
• − Management: −$2,177
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$7,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,700
• After-tax cash flow: $-427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hendry
• NCES district ID: 1200780
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,043
• Composite: 31.16/100
• National rank: #6054
• State rank: #65 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pioneer

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #727
• US rank: #15534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hendry County · 23,186 people
• Metro: Clewiston, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,186
• Household income: $57,009
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 498.0

Population outlook (Hendry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,866 people
• By 2030: 38,558 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 37,743 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 36,117 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 30,070 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 21,966 · -43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 39% Two or more races 21% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Hendry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.3) · D 30.4% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -38.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.3 2020: R+23.0 2016: R+14.2 2012: R+5.9 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.20%
• Current HPI: 537.4928
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clewiston, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-47.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $289,900 MARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $289,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $294,900 MARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $294,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $297,900 MARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $297,900 FORTMLS
• 2003-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $550,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $418 · -24.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.