20 Frasier Ln Unit B4 · Ludowici, GA 31316

$229,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,452 sqft · SingleFamily · 105 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $158/sqft · 12% below area Est $261k · 12% under $120/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Stillwater Commons: Ludowici's Premier Gated Community – Now Pre-Selling! Experience modern, low-maintenance living in this brand-new gated development. Featuring a blend of 1 and 2-story townhomes, residents will enjoy an upcoming dog park and playground. Building B offers 2-story units with 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Bathroom, and 1120 sq. ft. (104 sqm). Inside, you'll find a sleek kitchen with crisp white cabinetry and stainless steel appliances, complemented by durable LVP flooring (no carpet) throughout. Each home includes a private fenced-in yard and 2 designated parking spaces.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Dog park
• Playground

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• DOG PARK
• PLAYGROUND
• PRIVATE FENCED-IN YARD
• DESIGNATED PARKING SPACES
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($799/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.3% in Ludowici — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 478 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,390 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.25%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,830
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -12.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 SW Oak Ridge Cemetery Rd SW	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+1%)	9mo	$285,000	$193	84
60 Oak Ridge Cemetery Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	16mo	$227,000	$175	62
183 Franklin Tree Dr NE	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+6%)	20mo	$253,300	$164	61
70 Harmonees Way	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,501 (+3%)	11mo	$247,000	$165	54
239 Mill Pond Rd SE	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-11%)	0mo	$268,000	$208	45
8 Rimes Ave SE	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,466 (+1%)	22mo	$267,000	$182	45
613 S Macon St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-12%)	12mo	$217,000	$169	43
633 S Macon St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,570 (+8%)	14mo	$255,000	$162	42
55 Union St	0.75mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,472 (+1%)	20mo	$250,000	$170	39
198 Archibald Ave SE	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-8%)	21mo	$255,000	$191	38
9 Forman Way SE	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,537 (+6%)	16mo	$265,900	$173	37
1046 Buster Phillips Rd SE	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,249 (-14%)	17mo	$240,000	$192	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $10,413
• Equity at exit: $80,072

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $60,178
• Equity at exit: $107,888

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 37.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $229,000 ($158/sqft)
• Median days on market: 105 d
• This list price: 30% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31316

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 478
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,239 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,155

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $146	+0% $67	+5% $-13	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-22	+0% $67	+5% $155	+10% $244
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $125	base $67	+0.5pp $7	+1.0pp $-53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 W Franklin St Ludowici, GA	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,250	$1.32	93d	1	0.21mi
147 Rimes Ave SE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,100	$1.18	93d	1	0.46mi
34 Pine St Unit C C Ludowici, GA	2.0	1.0	990	$1,395	$1.41	93d	1	0.87mi
171 Baker Field Ln SE Ludowici, GA	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,350	$1.30	93d	1	1.31mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $125 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo-story homeUnder construction
• Construction: Vinyl sidingSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Privacy fencingShingle roofLot with miscellaneous/other featuresLocated in the Stillwater Commons subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heaterNo fireplace

HOA detail $120/mo · $1,440/yr

• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $229,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $229,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $229,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $229,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $229,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $229,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $229,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $229,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $229,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $229,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $229,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $229,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $229,000 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $229,000 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $229,000 Active 81 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $229,000 Active 80 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $229,000 Active 79 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $229,000 Active 78 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $229,000 Active 77 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $229,000 Active 76 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $229,000 Active 75 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 74 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 73 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $229,000 Active 72 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 71 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 70 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 69 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 68 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 67 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 66 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $229,000 Active 65 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $229,000 Active 64 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $229,000 Active 63 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $229,000 Active 62 DOM
38. 2026-06-26
    days on market $229,000 Active 61 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $229,000 Active 58 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $229,000 Active 57 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $229,000 Active 55 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $229,000 Active 54 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $229,000 Active 53 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $229,000 Active 52 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $229,000 Active 51 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $229,000 Active 49 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $229,000 Active 48 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $229,000 Active 46 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,000 Active 45 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 44 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,150
• − Management: −$2,150
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$2,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$705
• After-tax cash flow: $1,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand-new townhome in Stillwater Commons is move-in ready with fresh paint and flooring, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and reduces maintenance. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Smiley Elementary School Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Ludowici

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #74
• US rank: #6449

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ludowici, GA
• County: Long County · 24,669 people
• City population: 13,812
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 13,812
• Household income: $74,766
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

---

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Current HPI: 195.2978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $125 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo-story homeUnder construction
• Construction: Vinyl sidingSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Privacy fencingShingle roofLot with miscellaneous/other featuresLocated in the Stillwater Commons subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heaterNo fireplace

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $229,000 HABR