1413 Court St · Rankin, TX 79778

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,561 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1924 4.00 ac lot Est $175k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great starter home, with great hilltop view of school golf course.

Key facts

• Hilltop view
• School golf course
• 4 acre lot

Tags

• HILLTOP VIEW
• SCHOOL GOLF COURSE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick and other exterior construction materials; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Paved road frontage on a public maintained city street; 4-acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Central heating and central electric cooling; Natural gas heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-441/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#809 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, crime D-.
• Rankin ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #666 of 1,141 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Upton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,626 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,832
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
611 Halff St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-0%)	6mo	$175,000	$112	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $16,897
• Equity at exit: $71,943

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $63,402
• Equity at exit: $110,873

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79778

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,292/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,283

Max offer price $153,511

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $9	+0% $-37	+5% $-82	+10% $-127
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-86	+0% $-37	+5% $12	+10% $61
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $4	base $-37	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,636/yr (+$136/mo · 126.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,292
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,187
• − Management: −$1,187
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$779
• After-tax cash flow: $339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836510
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,559
• Composite: 37.66/100
• National rank: #8795
• State rank: #666 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Rankin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #14738

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rankin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,299

Population outlook (Upton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,105 people
• By 2030: 4,362 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 5,086 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 5,892 · +43.5%
• By 2075: 7,784 · +89.6%
• By 2100: 8,962 · +118.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Upton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.0) · D 11.2% · R 88.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -51.0pp · 2024: -77.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.0 2020: R+73.7 2016: R+52.2 2012: R+47.8 2008: R+51.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2026-04-30 Listed $160,000 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,292 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.