25618 SW 19th Ave · Newberry, FL 32669

$299,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1979 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What an AMAZING home in a well established neighborhood. Great corner lot with beautiful shading trees. Being near all three Newberry schools, makes this home perfect for the growing family. Bring the pets also! Fully fenced in back yard. This is a home that you must see!!

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1979

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single-family; Zoning: RSF-2; Lot size approximately 0.31 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Concrete road access
• HOA & community: No HOA/association reported; Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Development: Countryway

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with other materials
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed front porch; French doors; Wood fencing; Shed(s); Swim spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($367/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newberry Elementary School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 661 students, 44% FRL); Oak View Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 964 students, 49% FRL); Newberry High School (math 35% / reading 54%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 728 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 420 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $300k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,759 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.39%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,205
• Equity at exit: $44,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-31,129
• Equity at exit: $25,895

Cash invested: $83,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32669

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,478 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,571
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,978/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,439

Max offer price $299,500

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $115	+0% $31	+5% $-54	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-67	+0% $31	+5% $128	+10% $226
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $107	base $31	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,875
• Closing costs: $8,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25107 SW 9th Ln Newberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,095	$1.45	15d	1	0.46mi
24722 SW 21st Ln Newberry, FL	3.0	2.0	2017	$2,400	$1.19	23d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $299,500 Active
3. 2018-02-07
   soldstatus $139,000
4. 2018-02-05
   soldstatus $135,000 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   What an AMAZING home in a well established neighborhood. Great corner lot with beautiful shading trees. Being near all three Newberry schools, makes this home perfect for the growing family. Bring the pets also! Fully fenced in back yard. This is a home that you must see!!

5. 2017-08-23
   listed $150,000 274-char remark

   Show marketing remark (274 chars)

   What an AMAZING home in a well established neighborhood. Great corner lot with beautiful shading trees. Being near all three Newberry schools, makes this home perfect for the growing family. Bring the pets also! Fully fenced in back yard. This is a home that you must see!!

6. 1980-04-01
   soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,978 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,486 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$508/yr (+$42/mo · 25.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,777
• − Property taxes: −$1,978
• − Insurance: −$2,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,378
• − Management: −$2,378
• − Depreciation: −$8,713
• Taxable loss: −$4,788
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,149
• After-tax cash flow: $1,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newberry, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 17,704
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,704
• Household income: $99,548
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 161.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% Black 13% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.83%
• Current HPI: 263.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+551.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $299,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-05 Sold (MLS) $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-23 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1980-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,978 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.