1210 41st Avenue Dr E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 612 sqft · Manufactured public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1968 3,223 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY COME TAKE A LOOK AT THIS PROPERTY TODAY! Welcome to Tidevue Estates, a land-owned, active 55+ community! This rarely available one-car garage home with workshop and extra storage sits on a concrete slab. Truly move-in ready and turn-key furnished, this home has been thoughtfully updated throughout. Enjoy peace of mind with a brand-new roof (2024), all new windows, A/C replaced in 2022, and water heater updated in 2016. The updated kitchen features all-new cabinets, a refrigerator and stove (2019), plus two refrigerators with ice makers. The bright and spacious living room is perfect for entertaining. Laminate flooring flows throughout the home, and the primary bathroom has bee

Key facts

• One car garage
• All new windows
• Brand new roof

Tags

• ONE CAR GARAGE
• WORKSHOP AND EXTRA STORAGE
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• ALL NEW WINDOWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• WALK IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey (furnished); Total building area reported at 1,632 sq ft (public records); living area reported as 880 (estimated); Direction faces: South
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Tidevue Estates Civic Organization/Sharon (association membership required); Monthly HOA: $50 (annual fee $600); Association approval required; Association amenities include fitness center, laundry, park, pickleball courts, pool, recreational facilities, shuffleboard court, street lights; Deed restrictions; buyer approval required; golf carts allowed; senior community; pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car) with golf cart parking; Workshop area in garage; Garage dimensions approximately 24 x 10
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Metal roof; Roof over; Crawlspace and slab foundation; Built as single wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Asphalt road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Freezer; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $140k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.70%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $63,648
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4103 12th Street Ct E	0.05mi	2/1.0	630 (+3%)	3mo	$65,710	$104	91
4114 10th Street Ct E	0.13mi	2/1.0	600 (-2%)	2mo	$72,500	$121	89
4112 12th St E	0.04mi	1/1.0 (-1)	552 (-10%)	5mo	$45,000	$82	72
1204 45th Ave E	0.23mi	2/2.0	672 (+10%)	2mo	$37,500	$56	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $14,142
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $59,722
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $985/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,170

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $657	-5% $618	+0% $578	+5% $538	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $428	-5% $503	+0% $578	+5% $653	+10% $728
Rate	-1.0pp $648	-0.5pp $614	base $578	+0.5pp $542	+1.0pp $505

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	4d	13	0.56mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	2d	67	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $139,900
16. 2026-02-23
    price $149,900
17. 2026-01-24
    listed $159,900 Active
18. 2025-07-18
    historical
19. 2025-01-18
    listed $159,900 Active
20. 2015-02-25
    historical
21. 2014-08-15
    listed $49,000 Active
22. 1995-09-06
    soldstatus $28,000
23. 1990-02-26
    soldstatus $35,000
24. 1980-03-01
    soldstatus $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $985 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 17.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$985
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $4,973
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,194
• After-tax cash flow: $5,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+367.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-24 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-18 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-15 Listed $49,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1990-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1980-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $985 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.